Comment by thriftwy
2 years ago
Well, at the current point of time Russia's economy and infrastructure are mostly intact. I'm not sure why is that for a dramatic change.
If you look at Iran, it also has its infrastructure in quite OK conditions - perhaps in better shape than all of their neighbours, and now that may even include Turkey. Russia is larger and has not self-inflicted being a theocracy.
As for the losses of both sides, I'd suggest leaving that to military experts.
As the war drags on we can expect to see escalation in Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure targets such as refineries. Russia is already short of air defense systems and isn't able to provide much coverage for civilian targets. Whether this works will depend on the level of sustained foreign aid for Ukraine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/01/25/ukrain...
Depends on if Trump takes the Whitehouse in the fall and how European elections go :-(
In either case, even a Ukrainian defeat means Russia will be a pariah state to countries with reasonable governance. Trade will be difficult and diminished, same as it is with Iran.
Putin&Lavrov have clearly made this calculation and decided this is in their own interests. Whether it's in the interest of the Russian people I think is questionable.
It's interesting that you bring up Iran. They are actually doing pretty well considering that the US stole all their foreign currency reserves (and also precipitated the original conflict in the first place).
1 reply →
Kremlin will just use those attacks as an excuse to occupy larger parts of Ukraine. Bombing of Belgorod is now used as an excuse to create "demilitarized zone" that includes Kharkiv (second largest city in Ukraine). I guess another "demilitarized zone" will follow in Odessa, after some attack on Crimea.
Russia has been trying to occupy a larger part of Ukraine for almost 2 years now without success. They don't need excuses.
The only reason Russia doesn't occupy Kharkiv, Odesa and Kyiv is that they can't. They don't need any excuse.
With the current rate of attacks Ukraine is not able to cause any noticeable infrastructural issues, and anything beyond approximately the Volga river is not reachable by any weapon systems.
It's sort of a moving target like "How long would it take for Freddy Krueger to kill all Chinese teenagers"
[flagged]