Comment by somenameforme
2 years ago
Have you noticed near to everything "we" say, as far as analysis of this war goes, ends up being simply not true? Russia's running out of missiles, the Russian economy is collapsing, this counter-attack's going to destroy Russia, this weapon or that weapon will be a 'game-changer.' So forth and so on. And now we're at "well it's just a stalemate."
The latest 'big battle', so far as I know is ongoing in Avdiivka. [1] I have not read the Wiki page on it, but if you're interested in following the war, that'd probably be a reasonable starting spot.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka_(2022%E2%80...
Nice cherrypicking and building strawmen. How about the Russia's obvious failures? Was Kyiv offensive a "feint" according to you?
Avdiivka is a village of 1000 inhabitants, and it's the biggest Russian assault since Russia took the town of Bakhmut about a year ago. With this pace, Russia is going to take Kyiv in the year 3000.
No, the Kyiv offensive was obviously a poorly executed failure. And it happened right at the start of this war, which is exactly what I am saying. "That" Russian military lost to a relatively improvised small scale counter-offensive, while the "new" Russian military beat back a massive Ukrainian counter-attack directly backed (and probably directed) by NATO. These are practically two different forces. We're not weakening Russia, we're hardening it.
As for Avdiivka, read the Wiki on it for more info. It's an industrial city, one of the most heavily fortified locations in Ukraine, and of significant strategic value. Every inch in that place comes at a high price, and both sides desperately want to control it. So it's a pretty reasonable bellwether to keep your eyes on.
You don't have to worry about my knowledge of Avdiivka. It's a village which has a value only for Russia, because it's very close to Donetsk city and is a major thorn in the Russian propaganda - can you explain to me how is Russia so strong and at the same time after 2 years of war still can't push Ukrainians more than 10 kilometers from the downtown of Donetsk city, the capital of DPR?
For Ukraine, the only value Avdiivka represents is that it allows them to bleed Russians for it, because it just matters so much for them. Otherwise, Avdiivka is even less important than Bakhmut (that one was at least a logistics node) and the loss of it did not lead to any frontline collapse - on the opposite, Ukrainians were able to recover Bakhmut flanks since then.
> We're not weakening Russia, we're hardening it.
What military analysts are you following? Because from what I hear from my sources (e.g. Kofman, Massicot) Russia's forces are very much degraded with many of the best units lost.
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