Comment by eunos
2 years ago
Powers that be are betting that the Chinese won't be able to catch up. These folks might be swallowing the "Chinese aren't creative" too long
2 years ago
Powers that be are betting that the Chinese won't be able to catch up. These folks might be swallowing the "Chinese aren't creative" too long
An alternative explanation might involve both of:
1. Stopping technology transfer worked exceedingly well for the west weakening the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
2. A distinct lack of (non-violent) alternatives for the West preventing China becoming the world's leading technological superpower (and hence also strongest military).
I doubt this will be successful in the long run, because China is not burdened by the Soviet Union's extremely inefficient way of organising its economy. Not to mention that China is the worlds biggest market.
I think the same, this is disadvantageous long run, but I'm not in power and the people in power appear to be complete morons with little understanding of history or nuance.
I'm pretty sure we're rapidly heading into a West vs China military conflict. I think part of the reason we've held rates higher for longer is that it hurts China more than the West as a way to undermine the Chinese economy. Coupled with the sanctions the West is getting ready for a 'timing attack'. But if the West is wrong and loses that war then we're effed. I would prefer a graceful stepping down from world hegemon and taking our seat at a multipolar world where we can focus on getting our own house in order. But obviously those in charge have other incentives.
Don't say that sort of thing too loudly; JFK quoted a chengyu (骑虎难下) in support of a similar notion, in 1961 (and for his pains got cancelled in 1963): https://www.jfklibrary.org/archives/other-resources/john-f-k...
It will work in the long run due to China’s terrible demographics, which are worse than Japan’s; and Xi’s extreme mishandling of China’s economy and foreign relations which are both intertwined.
All that’s needed is a military containment of China.
> China’s terrible demographics
Are China's demographics appreciatively different from other industrialised countries? Questionable. Not to mention that it's unclear why an aging society is a problem at least for the next 100 years or so (e.g. most violent crime is perpetrated by the under-30s). It's also easy, at least for a dictatorship, to increase the birth rate (e.g. restrict access to all birth control, give massive preferences to families with children, like housing, salary, "bachelor tax" etc).
> military containment of China.
That is expensive. One frequently cited explanation for the collapse of the Soviet Union was that its poor economy could not support its oversized army, which it needed to keep the Soviet Bloc at heel (not to mention all the revolutions and secession movements it fostered elsewhere).
Also, does anyone actually believe that China is expansionist? Compare:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_Uni...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_Peo...
The strategic problem of China's rise is more that other countries will eventually switch allegiance away from the West.
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Washington can't even military contain the Houthis, or Iranians, or Russians.
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> All that’s needed is a military containment of China.
I know the 'demographics is destiny' is the Washington Consensus but it should be understood that these are the same people wrecking our economy over and over again and starting forever wars we end up losing.
The powers that be seem to actively be betting that China will collapse. Some geopoliticists predicted it would happen 10 years ago, but the arguments for it are somewhat compelling:
- China is facing a massive demographic bomb from one child policy
- China is a financial house of cards. Some of the stuff I've read about is 3 billion apartments built as investments/savings which are actually worthless, local/state debt and shell games that is frighteningly leveraged, and the general cheap/empty consumption/construction that state driven funding has produced
- China is turning sharply authoritarian, possibly headed to Stalinist levels of purges and cult of personality with Xi.
- China can feed its population and gets its oil due to free trade and shipping, quite extended supply lines, which are going to get a lot more chaotic in the future. If/when China attempts to invade Taiwan, the US will impose a naval blockade on its shipping (Zeihan claims a "couple destroyers in the Indian Ocean" ... probably a BIT more involved than that) ... China will starve and its economy will stop functioning.
I think this is part of a multipronged trade war to attempt to collapse the Chinese Communist party. If you want to talk about "powers that be", consider what is on the table here: the Putin regime will likely collapse from the failures in Ukraine, and Russia (who is facing a demographic bomb almost as bad as China's) is expending its last functional generation of youth on human waves in Ukraine.
So the two major nuclear powers might collapse entirely, and the only real economic rival to the US.
Chinese property issue has been hyped since the enforcement of 3 red lines policy and that was 3 years ago. Imagine hyping Lehman crisis during Obama v. Romney election.
The thing I have found amazing about the China collapse hype train is that I have been hearing it for almost 20 years now. Economists are point out some very real issues, it is just wild how long some of these things can go on for before the breaking happens.
But part of that is just the state of economics in the realm of mass media.
To that. Economist - Definition : Someone who can tell you today why yesterdays prediction of tomorrow was wrong.
Q. What do you call an Economist that makes a prediction? A. Wrong.
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> If/when China attempts to invade Taiwan, the US will impose a naval blockade on its shipping (Zeihan claims a "couple destroyers in the Indian Ocean" ... probably a BIT more involved than that) ... China will starve and its economy will stop functioning.
China will not face starvation because it shares a land border with Russia, which has enough food to supply China if necessary. However, this scenario is unlikely to unfold, as it overestimates the power of the US in this conflict. The conflict would predominantly be a naval battle, with US forces engaging with what are essentially forts. Most war games conducted in the US indicate that in an initial battle, the US would be defeated and forced to retreat. You should read the report presented to Congress a few months ago about China's military capabilities.
> the Putin regime will likely collapse from the failures in Ukraine
Based on situation today, lets just hope that Ukraine will not collapse because we are very far from Russia collapsing. See IMF data about their economy and situation on the front.
The US is not alone in the South China Sea. Japan sees this as an existential issue, and Australia and the UK will also likely join the battle in addition to other countries against the 9 point line.
India might also become opportunistic and start to resolve its boundary disputes with China.
This also doesn’t account for Xi’s purges of the PLA including its all important rocket force.
The border with Russia is all Siberian as you probably know. You should also know that a couple special forces strikes on the rail infrastructure and ... no grain for China. Ukraine has already carried out successful raids on Siberian infrastructure. Infrastructure/logisical lines in Siberia are incredibly vulnerable: they are expensive to lay down, they are geographically extremely extended, there is basically no way to defend it. The Siberian people are not exactly pro-Moscow either, especially since their young generation has been preferentially/racially culled for meat wave tactics in Ukraine.
It is doubtful what can be essentially considered a single fragile rail route can provide it logistically.
the Russian yields are not fantastic, and atop that Ukraine is for the foreseeable future not available for providing grain.
A war with China will disrupt international trade so much that grain demand will explode (countries will probably stockpile more) and the grain providers can select 1) blockaded china or 2) any of a hundred other customers.
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/
So Brazil, Argentina would be out, can't ship to China
US would obviously stop exports
Canada, Australia, New Zealand, France: out
Indonesia, Thailand: probably out.
I agree that Russia is not in a situation of imminent collapse, neither is Putin in danger of imminent overthrow. However, demographically the Russians are expending the last of their skilled and young workers, while forcing Europe to no longer need their oil + gas, accelerate all EV / PV / Wind initiatives. Russia will lose "the last decade" of high oil profits before the demand begins to collapse.
Russia has also emboldened its other satellite conquests with its military incompetence. There was a video of Putin negotiating publicly with one of the southern states (don't remember, may have been Georgia) where the leader at the public negotiation table outright defied Putin. Meanwhile Ukraine modernizes, trains, becomes stronger and more effective. NATO is arming, and at this point Ukraine will probably be the site of an actual NATO-Russia conventional battle, which given NATO's ability for total air superiority means a complete defeat. If you're wondering who would fight the ground war given likely American apathy for another war, Poland would ENTHUSIASTICALLY fully mobilize to fight the Russians.
Down the line, Belarus's propped up government will fall, and Russia is staring at virtually a multi thousand mile border with outright NATO or might-as-well-be-NATO countries between Finland, Baltic republics, and Ukraine, and probably Belarus as I just said.
Black Sea access is very tenuous. Kalingrad is unreachable, and may secede. North Sea access is really tenuous.
Honestly the only hope for Russia is Europe doesn't arm fast enough and the US House of Reps holds up funding (which I believe 96bln just got approved).
And Russia's leadership is historically aware, what is happening as a result of this war (severing of gas supply dependence) is an armed Germany. The prospect of a fully industrially armed and modernized German military should strike a deep cultural fear in the entire Russian people.
And we didn't address the oil/petroleum issue. China can stockpile what they can, but an embargo will still result in the lights going off in China within 30 days.
China is still essentially a warlord state, and Xi is likely generating substantial resentment in the regional power centers. If the central government fails in a blockade, the Chinese state, fragmented between the free market liberal urban governments who resent the free market rollbacks, the CCP power center, and who knows in the rural areas, will crumble into warlord states.
As a side note, not a lot of people talk about the SOuth Korean demographic bomb (worst in the world), but if China falters the solution to South Korean demographics is to topple the North Koreans and import their population into the South Korean economy. I think that will happen in the next 20 years.