Comment by VelesDude

>just wild how long some of these things can go on for before the breaking happens

Other point of consideration is sometimes things breaks with a whimper not a collapse. Real estate technically "broke" with 3RL = expected 2-3% drop in excess / unproductive GDP. Collapsist think PRC will turn into Yemen without pumped up RE growth, but actual RE sales is ~15% of economy, the often quoted ~30% number includes ancillary industries like construction that got redirected to other projects like renewable rollouts. PRC RE sales dropping from 15T (yuan/rmb) in 2021 to 12T in 2023 out of 100T GDP = today's "quality" growth at ~5% instead of previous wreckeless growth ~8%. Meanwhile, resources directed at actually useful strategic industries, backed by pipeline that generates about as much high skilled workers as western block combined doing actual useful things like building EVs, fabs and generally moving up value chain. IMO west is going to miss the days PRC wreckeless sunk money in real estate instead of high tech products that will directly challenge encumbant western market leaders.

You're not necessarily wrong, but the core forces these people formed some of their predictions are still happening, and worsening.

- no one seems to be contradicting the contention that the CCP under Xi has become sharply authoritarian, regressive, and is worsening

- the reported demographics may be sharply worse for the immediate forthcoming generations than previously reported: 100-250 million "missing" people, and a sharply worse male-female ration that previously reported. Again, for me, these depend on the size of the Chinese rural population, which I think might buffer demographic declines in urban areas.

- the financial "bombs" I agree are the least significant ones in terms of dramatic collapse scenarios. They are the ones all the rich care about because they might lose money, but the Chinese can print money and impose price controls and lots of other things that Western economies probably can't get away with.

What the financial numbers mean is two symptomatic signs: degree of corruption in the system but, worse than corruption, the degree of incompetence of the CCP to properly centrally manage things as they consolidate authoritarian control.

You won't find me defending economics on fundamental principles. Economists basically exist to justify the status quo power structure and are utterly incapable of constructing models to include things to price environmental degradation that might, you know, destroy human civilization.

I think that if China had not turned sharply authoritarian, they would be fine. It is a modernizing country of 1.4 billion people. But not the double-combo