Yes, but specifically the Palestinian impact is why it’s such a terrible policy for Israel unless you assume their goal is perpetual war. Most people do not want to kill other people but each innocent killed like this is leaving behind friends, family, and neighbors who will want vengeance and some fraction of them will decide they need to resort to violence because the other mechanisms aren’t being used. Watching this happen has been incredibly depressing as you can pretty much mathematically predict a revenge period measured in decades.
This assumes they're going to leave enough people alive to even enact vengeance. If they murder everyone, than there's no need to worry about any Gazan revenge; there will be no Gazans.
There's millions of Palestinians living in the West Bank or as refugees abroad, expelled or descended from those expelled in previous rounds of ethnic cleansing. Even if IDF go final solution on the 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza ghetto, this will not be the end of all Palestinians or the Palestinian struggle. See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_diaspora
Could you please clarify what you mean by "Hamas wanted in ghe first place"? If I'm not mistaken, you're referring to the attack on the 7th of October, right? May I perhaps add that just on the days preceding that attack, Israelis killed a Palestinian in the West Bank[0]. So it was not really peaceful before that specific date.
I don't see any point in rehashing the I/P infinite regress. You end up trying to figure out where bronze age tribes lived. For the purposes of this conversation I'm going to step away from I/P and look at the strategy that I believe was used in the abstract.
You've got two sides, Able and Baker, with a range of opinions on both sides, from a moderate majority to an extreme minority.
Able extremists attack Baker in a way which is big, shocking and violent.
Baker is provoked into retaliation against Able. Crucially, the retaliation is against the whole of Able, including the moderates.
When it all dies down, there are less Able moderates and more Able extremists. (Because if someone dropped an Acme piano on my family, I'd be tempted to strap on the Acme exploding underpants, too).
This "leverage your enemy's strength to radicalize your own people" approach is common. 9/11 is probably the clearest example, but you could even see the non-violent Civil Rights protests in America in this light (march, provoke violent response, gain converts and sympathy). If this wasn't one of the factors behind the October attacks, Hamas are dumber than I give them credit for.
Thus, I see "the Palestinian people will not forget this" as "the cycle of violence is locked in for another generation".
Yes, but specifically the Palestinian impact is why it’s such a terrible policy for Israel unless you assume their goal is perpetual war. Most people do not want to kill other people but each innocent killed like this is leaving behind friends, family, and neighbors who will want vengeance and some fraction of them will decide they need to resort to violence because the other mechanisms aren’t being used. Watching this happen has been incredibly depressing as you can pretty much mathematically predict a revenge period measured in decades.
This assumes they're going to leave enough people alive to even enact vengeance. If they murder everyone, than there's no need to worry about any Gazan revenge; there will be no Gazans.
Technically possible, yes, but that’s increasing the death toll from 33k to 2,300k. I don’t think that’s plausible.
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There's millions of Palestinians living in the West Bank or as refugees abroad, expelled or descended from those expelled in previous rounds of ethnic cleansing. Even if IDF go final solution on the 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza ghetto, this will not be the end of all Palestinians or the Palestinian struggle. See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_diaspora
I think he means the cycle of violence will continue.
Which is what I kinda assume Hamas wanted in the first place.
Could you please clarify what you mean by "Hamas wanted in ghe first place"? If I'm not mistaken, you're referring to the attack on the 7th of October, right? May I perhaps add that just on the days preceding that attack, Israelis killed a Palestinian in the West Bank[0]. So it was not really peaceful before that specific date.
[0] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-killed...
I don't see any point in rehashing the I/P infinite regress. You end up trying to figure out where bronze age tribes lived. For the purposes of this conversation I'm going to step away from I/P and look at the strategy that I believe was used in the abstract.
You've got two sides, Able and Baker, with a range of opinions on both sides, from a moderate majority to an extreme minority.
Able extremists attack Baker in a way which is big, shocking and violent.
Baker is provoked into retaliation against Able. Crucially, the retaliation is against the whole of Able, including the moderates.
When it all dies down, there are less Able moderates and more Able extremists. (Because if someone dropped an Acme piano on my family, I'd be tempted to strap on the Acme exploding underpants, too).
This "leverage your enemy's strength to radicalize your own people" approach is common. 9/11 is probably the clearest example, but you could even see the non-violent Civil Rights protests in America in this light (march, provoke violent response, gain converts and sympathy). If this wasn't one of the factors behind the October attacks, Hamas are dumber than I give them credit for.
Thus, I see "the Palestinian people will not forget this" as "the cycle of violence is locked in for another generation".
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This is a dumb road to go down because the finger pointing is almost infinite. This conflict has been very active for decades now.
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