Comment by enragedcacti

I don't understand how you got 2047. For the 2022 survey:

    - "How many years until you expect: - a 90% probability of HLMI existing?" 
    mode: 100 years
    median: 64 years

    - "How likely is it that HLMI exists: - in 40 years?"
    mode: 50%
    median: 45%

And from the summary of results: "The aggregate forecast time to a 50% chance of HLMI was 37 years, i.e. 2059"