Comment by 01100011

Too many people are extrapolating the curve to exponential when it could be a sigmoid. Lots of us got too excited and too invested in where "AI" was heading about ten years ago.

But that said, there are plenty of crappy, not-AGI technologies that deserve consideration. LLMs can still make for some very effective troll farms. GenAI can make some very convincing deepfakes. Drone swarms, even without AI, represent a new dimension of capabilities for armies, terrorist groups or lone wolves. Bioengineering is bringing custom organisms, prions or infectious agents within reach of individuals.

I wish someone in our slowly-ceasing-to-function US government was keeping a proper eye on these things.