Comment by reducesuffering

C'mon, you can't believe that any of those 5 sources offers the same conclusive Russian invasion information in advance as Alperovitch. Alperovitch was certainly using adjacent sources, but synthesized a strong assertion (rather than reporting potential concerns) in advance of the others. Therefore, his novel analysis (on Twitter!) was more useful than any of those, some of which are just reporting the concerns around Putin's essay or Donbas-related rotations a year before.

Essentially what I just said: "No academic book or Axios or Politico article was there to inform you conclusively that early."

And you admit Alperovitch's Twitter is useful for his NSC and geopol access.