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Comment by BurningFrog

7 months ago

The island is certainly in the risk zone, but I think that is also unknowable.

My guess is that by carbon sequestering and/or SO2 injection in the stratosphere, the climate change will be controllable within a few decades.

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BurningFrog

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skeledrew  7 months ago

It's very likely that we're already beyond some of the tipping points, and others are very close[0]. We're basically going into the mitigation phase now by my understanding.

[0] https://www.space.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-rea...

  • BurningFrog  7 months ago

    I'm quite skeptical.

    If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering) and cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight (SO2 injection in the stratosphere), I'm sure these alleged tipping points will be tipped back again, given some time.

    It's good to be aware that doom sells, and the incentive to publish doom predictions for the money they make is very high. Of course, they can still be true...

    We'll see how it goes :)

    • skeledrew  7 months ago

      I don't get the reason for skepticism, when this is coming from scientists who've been studying the field for many years, and have been making predictions that have been coming true.

      It's like an avalanche. After it starts you can't stop it or get all that snow back on the mountain; it has to get to level ground, melt (if it gets warm enough) and go through an entire cycle that takes time. So yes, things will likely tip back. After humanity either has already been wiped out or fully migrated to other planets and the earth gets the chance to reset itself.

      I don't see it as doom, just something inevitable, which we helped to cause. And it's the ones that do all they can to downplay the consequences who make the money, in every instance, as acceptance would be bad for business.

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    • ClumsyPilot  7 months ago

      > If we lower the CO2 levels (carbon sequestering

      This is simply fantasy. Sequestering carbon mechanically is an energy losing process. It is also inefficient.

      If we burned oil in year 2,000 at (generously) 50% efficiency, it will cost us 4X more in year 2040 to sequester it at 50% (very generous) efficiency.

      On the face of it, we would need a sequestering industry that is 4X bigger than the oil industry, and it will be just losing money. Politically, it’s just not going to happen.

      Natural sequestration (I.e. tree planting) is not enough by a very large margin (like over 10x)

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    • spookie  7 months ago

      I would assume that "given some time" outlasts the median life expectancy of humans. If it ever happeens. Like others said it's a chaotic system in many ways, not as if you can predict more than a few decades.

      Given this, after "giving it some time" a lot of people would be dead as a direct consequence of it not been given enough time.

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