Comment by brushfoot
1 year ago
This doesn't really address Loma Linda, California, the Adventist blue zone.
The researcher's criticism of Loma Linda isn't that people don't live longer there; it's that Adventist Health purchased Dan Buettner's marketing company Blue Zones LLC in 2020.
Adventists are teetotalers, so he questions why they'd want to be associated with the Blue Zones guideline of drinking "every day at twice the NHS heavy drinking guidelines."
Which is a fair question -- but it doesn't have anything to do with whether Loma Linda is an area with greater longevity.
From the paper: For example, the Centres for Disease Control generated an independent estimate of average longevity across the USA: they found that Loma Linda, a Blue Zone supposedly characterised by a ‘remarkable’ average lifespan 10 years above the national average, instead has an unremarkable average lifespan29 (27th-75th percentile; Fig S6).
This misses the forest for the trees.
The CDC looked at average life expectancy in Loma Linda across all demographics. Purely geographical and on average.
The blue zones focused on the greater longevity specifically of Adventists in Loma Linda.
It wasn't a question of whether living inside the municipal boundaries of Loma Linda automatically conferred some special health benefits -- clearly it doesn't.
It was, "Why is there an unusually high concentration of outliers living here, and what behaviors cause them to live longer than average?"
There are ~9000 Adventists in Loma Linda. This is two categories you can split people into, then intersect.
There are 330,000,000 million Americans. There are likely millions of categories people can be split into. Just for fun let's say counties (6000+) then any of a zillion other cross items (left handed, blue eyed, above average height, smells like butter, etc., etc.,Etc.) Say we find 10,000 of these categories.
Life expectancy is decently modeled as a gaussian with std deviation 8 years. A 10 year excess is a z-score of 1.25, and 10% of samples will be at this point.
The odds of TONS of subsets of size 9000 of the 330,000,000 people that can be found in the same pair of county+trait from the 600,000,000 pairs is nearly 1.
Thus the Adventists in Loma Linda are far more likely to be one of these many blips that have zero causal power than they are to have special life sauce. Finding them is merely an artifact of being able to filter data, not a special power of the objects.
Or a simpler way: pick two binary traits, split the 330m Americans into 33,000 chunks of size 10,000 where each group has all in one of the four pairs of traits, and you would expect (more or less - there is some more math to do here) that 10% of these groups has average lifespans over 10 years, i.e., 3,300 of the groups are the same as the Loma Linda Adventists.
No magic needed. Just rolling dice.
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I don't think that is right. In the Blue Zones marketing material, they characterise Loma Linda's 9000 Adventists, who make up 40% of the population, as living a decade longer on average. That is the claim being investigated. This claim is hard to reconcile with the CDC's official numbers which show a typical life expectancy for the entire area, unless living next to Adventists somehow lowers the life expectancy for the remaining 60% of the population, which would be far more interesting.
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> It was, "Why is there an unusually high concentration of outliers living here, and what behaviors cause them to live longer than average?"
Blue Zones LLC also provided a set of answers to that question, and one of those answers (“drinking 1-2 glasses of wine per day”) is clearly not true in this case.
And honestly, it’s just Bayesian statistics—if they present 5 data points, and 4 of those data points are floating somewhere between data errors and fraud, then odds are, that last data point is flawed somehow as well. Certainly they would need to do some extra work to prove that it isn’t.
So first it was Sardinia, Okinawa, Ikaria, Loma Linda. Then it's not even Loma Linda but specifically Loma Linda Adventists. That looks like XKCD-level p-hacking
https://www.xkcd.com/882/
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I don't get your point.
Who's claiming that living inside the boundaries of such zones would confer health benefits?
The paper is pointing out that if you actually look at the data there is nothing remarkable about the region's average lifespan (actually lower than the entire country of Japan), which is what's being discussed here.
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> This misses the forest for the trees.
In a large enough forest, there's always one or two randomly weird trees.
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> It was, "Why is there an unusually high concentration of outliers living here, and what behaviors cause them to live longer than average?"
Isn't there bound to be some random noise?
This seems pretty explainable by Seventh Day Adventists' behavioral factors leading to increased life, a group with very little smoking and drinking living longer isn't surprising.
It does if you read it.
Loma Linda residents don't have a notable longer life span than the other residents of California.
The idea wasn't that averaging out the lifespan of all Loma Linda residents, regardless of lifestyle, would yield a higher number than everywhere else. It was that there was an unusually high number of outliers living there, and the question was why.
The CDC's average was purely geographic and irrespective of lifestyle, which is different.
https://manna.amazingfacts.org/amazingfacts/website/medialib...
Here is probably why: https://manna.amazingfacts.org/amazingfacts/website/medialib...
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