Comment by n4r9
14 days ago
Yep, I'm mostly in agreement with you and am also hoping that the West does enable a sudden decisive victory. The best option would have been to nip it in the bud. Instead, Russia were given the space to landmine swathes of land, modernise their military tactics, and build an alliance with Iran and North Korea. And as you say the wrong kinds of people are winning here.
The only thing is, what happens next if the West pulls out? Ukraine's military collapses, Russia moves in on Kyiv, Putin gains another Belarus-like satellite state, and at least considers encroaching on Estonia, Finland etc... . It's more than just the principle of whether warmongering is acceptable - a lot of people will suffer as a consequence and possibly for decades to come. We have to be really careful to consider which is worse in the long-term.
I agree with both of you, but also want to point out that it's easier to make these criticisms in retrospect.
I think the West was making the best calculus it could as the situation developed. Sure, you can say we should have known Putin was bluffing about redlines. But the downside of all out war is high enough that, when multiplied by the probability, you still get a bad number. I think it's reasonable that Western governments played it cautiously and hoped for a different resolution (like a successful internal coup).
But yes, now we are where we are and it sucks for Ukraine.
>it's easier to make these criticisms in retrospect.
For what it's worth, I've been critical of our (American, subsequently western) response since the first one. Speaking as an American, our response was and still are lukewarm and thus ineffectual in declaring a firm stand against warmongering. I was heartbroken and then angry at being told how (not) valuable world peace actually was.
What Putin did was declare war against the very notion of peace, and the west fucking surrendered it in the worst way possible after preaching so passionately about peace to everyone everywhere everytime.
So by effectively promising to largely validate Putin's claimed grievances and war spoils (via his promised "deal") -- do you think the incoming US president will be acting in favor of, or against "the very notion of peace"?
Any illusions about 21st century US peace preaching should have been given up sometime in, oh, 2003-2011.
And while we concern ourselves deeply about genocide against Ukrainians and Palestinians, somewhere between 1-3 million Uyghurs have been imprisoned in China.
It sucks to finally realize it, but rhetoric has always been exactly that.