Comment by Retric
18 hours ago
Ideally a satellite is in a given orbit for years. If junk is destroying it in weeks or even months you’ve got a massive issue.
However a rocket is spending in a seconds in that same orbit. Thus a rocket passing through may only have say 1:10,000 odds of a collision on its way to mars while satellites are getting shredded.
Yes exactly ... This is a cloud of junk that stops anything getting out....
Thanks for the explanation.
So you don’t think the 1:10k odds compounded over every space launch are enough to be a problem?
I was thinking that maybe as you get to a scale where you have things coming and going all the time, and each time they have to pass through the debris layer, and if they have bad luck they become part of that debris, that eventually you get to a point where even just passing through that layer is untenable. But you don’t think that is likely even for a society sending out interplanetary vessels every day?
A problem, but not an insurmountable one.
Being hit isn’t the same as being destroyed, you can track and avoid large objects, and small are survivable in the short term. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whipple_shield Collisions however keep adding up until a satellite fails.
Second an outbound rocket need not be in orbit, so if it is destroyed that may not result in extra orbital debris the overwhelming majority of mass could fall back to earth.
Also, Kessler syndrome isn’t a forever thing. There’s a reason planets have rings not debris clouds. It’s possible to have a steady state where the rate you’re making it worse is balanced with the rate things are naturally clearing.