Comment by iamthemonster
2 months ago
Every so often I receive commercially sensitive information about my company which I'm not allowed to disclose before it's formally communicated to the stock market. For fun, I try to predict what impact it'll have on the share price (though of course I can't actually trade!)
I can successfully predict the direction of the share price movement 50% of the time and successfully predict the magnitude of the share price movement 0% of the time.
Maybe consider using a stock market simulator, make trades based on inside information, and see where you end up in one year? That would be interesting.
>I can successfully predict the direction of the share price movement 50% of the time
50% performance when there are two options is chance, no? So that just means that you can't predict it at all.
Technically there is a third possibility that the price will remain exactly the same. But the odds of that are even lower.
...that's the joke.
But in what time frame, can you predict that?
None.