Comment by lolinder
1 month ago
> You seem to be assuming that the rapid progress in AI will suddenly stop.
And you seem to assume that it will just continue for 5 years. We've already seen the plateau start. OpenAI has tacitly acknowledged that they don't know how to make a next generation model, and have been working on stepwise iteration for almost 2 years now.
Why should we project the rapid growth of 2021–2023 5 years into the future? It seems far more reasonable to project the growth of 2023–2025, which has been fast but not earth-shattering, and then also factor in the second derivative we've seen in that time and assume that it will actually continue to slow from here.
At this point, the lack of progress since April 2023 is really what is shocking.
I just looked on midjourney reddit to make sure I wasn't missing some new great model.
Instead what I notice is the small variations on the themes I have already seen a thousand times a year ago now. Midjourney is so limited in what it can actually produce.
I am really worried that all this is much closer to a parlor trick than AGI. "simple trick or demonstration that is used especially to entertain or amuse guests"
It all feels more and more like that to me than any kind of progress towards general intelligence.
> OpenAI has tacitly acknowledged that they don't know how to make a next generation model
Can you provide a source for this? I'm not super plugged into the space.
There's this [0]. But also o1/o3 is that acknowledgment. They're hitting the limits of scaling up models, so they've started scaling compute [1]. That is showing some promise, but it's nowhere near the rate of growth they were hitting while next gen models were buildable.
[0] https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-gpt5-orion-delays-639e769...
[1] https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/20/ai-scaling-laws-are-showin...