Comment by est31
1 month ago
It comes down to moats. Does OpenAI have a moat? It's leading the pack, but the competitors always seem to be catching up to it. We don't see network effects with it yet like with social networks, unless OpenAI introduces household robots for everyone or something, builds a leading marketshare in that segment, and the rich data from these household bots is enough training data that one can't replicate with a smaller robot fleet.
And AI is too fundamental of a technology that a "loss leader biggest wallet wins" strategy, used by the likes of Uber, will work.
API access can be restricted. Big part of why Twitter got authwalled was so that AI models can't train from it. Stack overflow added a no AI models clause to their free data dump releases (supposed to be CC licensed), they want to be paid if you use their data for AI models.
I wasn't referring to OAI, but rather:
1. Existing legacy players with massive data lock-ins like ERP providers and Google/Microsoft.
2. Massive consolidation within AI platforms rather than massive fragmentation if these legacy players do get disrupted or opportunities that do pop up.
In other words - the usual suspects will continue to win because they have the data and lock in. Any marginal value in having a specialized model, agent workflow, or special training data, ect. will not be significant enough to switch to a niche app.
It is indeed unfortunate and niches will definitely exist. What I am referring to is primarily in enterprise.
I don't think OpenAI have a moat in the traditional sense. Other players offer the exact same API so OpenAI can only win with permanent technical leadership. They may indeed be able to attain that but this is no Coca-Cola.