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Comment by rob74

4 days ago

"rises by nearly one third" sounds a bit strange to me, more correct would be "Plant CO2 uptake is currently underestimated by one third according to new research"?

> The research, detailed in the journal Nature, is expected to improve Earth system simulations that scientists use to predict the future climate, and spotlights the importance of natural carbon sequestration for greenhouse gas mitigation.

Too bad that we are currently doing the exact opposite (cutting down more forest than is regrown)...

Not everywhere, between 2000 and 2020, 36 countries managed to get more tree cover than they lost, so we "just" need to expand this practice.

https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest...

> Even though the world gained 130.9 Mha of tree cover between 2000 and 2020, it still lost much more, with an overall net loss of 100.6 Mha. While the global numbers report a negative trajectory, there are distinct regional patterns or “hotspots” of net gain. At least 36 countries gained more tree cover than they lost over the 20-year time period. As a continent, Europe gained 6 million hectares of tree cover by 2020. Asia also had a large proportion of countries with net gain, particularly in Central and South Asia. The drivers of much of this gain (for example, what proportion is due to intentional restoration interventions versus land abandonment) are still difficult to determine using the available data, but are a key area for future research. Additionally, even though tree cover gain is occurring in many places, it doesn’t “cancel out” the impacts of loss. Primary forests in particular serve as critical carbon stores and support an intricate network of wildlife, none of which can easily be replaced once lost.

  • And it’s not just trees. Ever heard of “justdiggit”?

    They found that digging holes in the desert functionally accumulates enough water to promote diverse plant life. It’s apparent an ancient practice. They organize groups to do it. Ecological stewardship is, I hope, a key shift in mindset from the current totalizing view of global warming.

    https://justdiggit.org/

    • We should get prisoners to just randomly dig holes in the sand, a shovels length in diameter

    • I didn't know about this but after several documentaries on the medium to long term impact of these projects many areas being more detrimental than beneficial I tend to be a bit skeptical. I get particularly skeptical when the whole website is geared towards taking in corporate donations rather than teaching how to do it and direct action and a sort of wiki of how to do it yourself as well as evangelizing that.

      I didn't spend too long on the website but this page https://justdiggit.org/dig-in/farmer/start-regreening/ seems to be the closest to that, yet it's still no instructions and just marketing. I don't want to sound too negative or make a judgment call with too little information but wanted to share my worries as it has become all too common for grifters to take advantage of the situation in a sort of partnership with huge corporation leadership teams. They get free money and the leadership team gets to greenwash whatever they do in their core business.

      I never researched this specific one in detail other than a few minutes now, but the company I worked for previously used to do this style of donations and we found a lot of projects like this.

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  • That first map makes it seem like we had gains pretty much all over the world, but it's not showing net gain, most of the countries of the world had a net tree cover loss. I wish it had a map showing net losses per country too – and it'd be interesting to see it going back in time, many countries had periods of very extensive logging during the 1800's and 1900's.

    • Forest loss data is available for the study period (2000 - 2020). I've worked with this specific data source quite a bit. While it's known for being the gold standard in global forest loss estimation there are many countries that criticize it for over estimating loss. Going back further than 1985 is difficult/impossible as the estimate is derived from satellite data.

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    • > most of the countries of the world had a net tree cover loss.

      This also doesn't really matter.

      Russia, Canada, Brazil, the US, and China are about ~60% of the world's trees.

      Their forest areas could grow by only 2-3% and dozens of small countries could lose substantial percentages of their forests, and we'd still end up with a ton more trees and forest area.

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  • I don't know that getting more trees than you lost is a useful or effective measure against climate change. It's a good thing, certainly, but I imagine the amount of carbon we're pumping into the atmosphere requires more than a steady state of trees. I wonder how much of the world we'd need to cover with trees in order to offset our carbon production, certainly more than we've had during modern civilization.

At least in the UK woodland cover is increasing. It was 3% back in 1900~ and today it stands at about [13%][0]. The aim in the UK is to be at 15% woodland and tree coverage by 2050 – quite achievable.

I currently teach woodland management and arboriculture (I also run a weird hybrid business doing software and arboriculture) in the UK and the idea that we cut down more than we plant is a common misconception that I spend a lot of time (and I mean a lot of time) correcting with the public and general layperson. Felling trees for forestry purposes requires a felling license[1], which always comes with a re-stocking clause.

As for urban green infrastructure (basically private and municipal trees and hedges), that comes with it's own issues, and there's a lot of wins to be had there but there are also lots of challenges. I know the Arboricultural Association in the UK are doing some great work here to advocate for finding ways to retain private and municipal trees whilst managing risk to the public (the main reason trees are normally removed second only to "aesthetic").

Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) is also a thing in the UK which broadly translates to ensuring that any private building works or developments must now have a demonstrable positive effect on local biodiversity and where that's not possible, then developers can "offset" by commissioning biodiversity projects elsewhere. For example, I've just taken delivery of 1200 trees (oak, hazel) today, which will be planted into semi-ancient woodland that I manage.

So basically the idea that we're cutting down forest ahead of what can restock isn't accurate, in fact in the UK at least, it is quite the opposite.

A good news story for you.

[0]: https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/statis....

[1]: unless it is a) less than five cubic metres in a twelve week period (basically "thinning" woodland so that other trees have room to grow / habitat improvement for priority habitats). b) a private tree without a preservation order/ fruit tree, c) diseased or dying or d) a suitably high risk to public safety.

  • I heard that the major problem with replanting efforts is monoculture. What are your thoughts on that?

    • It depends. For forestry stock there's no real way to avoid monoculture if you need a lot and you need it soon (40-60 years). There's much more to this answer though because Phytopthora is hammering larch, Ips is hammering spruce and red band needle blight is hammering pines. That's another topic on itself. Broadly though, there's nothing wrong with a monoculture per-se ([Pando][1], Boreal woodland) it just depends on how it is managed and how well the ecology does in response to it.

      That being said, personally, I favour the continuous cover approach of mixing up natives broadleaves with non-native conifers as long as the site isn't ancient or semi-ancient natural woodland (ASNW) or plantation on ancient woodland site (PAWS). For those sites, they're too important for use as a commercial forestry site and arguably the ecology needs to be restored, maintained and managed. Those sites are precious and should be managed properly in-line with their identified [NVC identifier][2]. The one exception to this is coppicing. Having a coppice on ancient sites where coppicing was practised is one of the few woodland management techniques that adds to ecology over all four woodland layers over all time frames.

      I never thought I'd answer that question on HN. I appreciate you asking. What's your take on forestry monocultures?

      [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pando_(tree) [2]: https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/nvc/

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> Too bad that we are currently doing the exact opposite (cutting down more forest than is regrown)...

Carbon is captured when trees grow. Lumber binds carbon into buildings and constructions.

  • Old forests sequester more carbon than new ones. When you cut down a tree, you leave half of it under ground, and when the roots break down all that carbon is released to the atmosphere.

    It is far from straightforward whether it is better to leave the forests standing or cut down and replant. The forestry industry is of course claiming that a cultivated forest is better for the climate. The environmentalists are claiming that old forests that are left alone are better for the climate and in addition better for ecological diversity.

    I tend to believe the side whose income doesn’t depend on their claim.

    • Sounds dubious. Most trees are not nearly 50% roots by biomass. The roots that remain will get broken down, but not into gases exclusively. A new tree that’s growing is actively capturing new carbon. Cutting down a tree won’t help much, but if a new tree grows where the old one was, it’s hard to find reasoning to suggest a net loss.

    • What happens to the parts that are cut down and used is what matters. If you build long-lasting houses from them, then it's probably good for the climate, as long as new tree is planted in its place. If you use the wood to make toilet paper, then it's not so good for climate since that carbon will return to the atmosphere faster.

  • It’s a net negative over time if the square footage that was housing a tree is replaced with grassland or a neighborhood. You trade a one-time, one-tree-sized fixing event against all fixing by all future generations of trees on that spot.

    The climate math of lumber works if you’re talking about “productive forests” where trees are allowed to grow to replace trees cut down. It doesn’t work for situations when a forest is cleared and not replaced, which is mostly what is happening where rainforest is being cleared.

    • In the USA, at least, most the lumber for home construction is farmed. We don't rely on "old growth" for much anymore.

      Meaning the forests are kept forests and new trees are planted to replace the ones that are cut down. The land the trees are farmed from is kept forested because it provides a income source for the owners. Also the trees tend to grow much faster then they do in natural forests because things like spacing out trees is optimized.

      This is a big complaint for wood working folks, ironically. Because natural grown trees grow slower the wood grain is much tighter and ends up being generally higher quality. Where as modern farmed wood has huge rings.

      Although it isn't too bad because you don't use soft woods much for things like furniture making. Where as construction lumber is almost all soft wood.

      So at least in the USA the ratio of grown-to-cut wood is about 1.92. So we plant trees nearly 2 to 1 versus what we cut down.

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    • Most (all?) of the carbon sequestered by a tree that dies and rots on the forest floor goes back into the atmosphere. So the "fixing by all future generations" is just the same carbon sink as the current 1 alive standing tree for that spot of real estate.

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  • I think the subsistence farmers cutting down the Amazon are doing more burning than construction.

  • Much less than half of the tree mass is used that way. (But of course also the part in buildings is there only temporarily, for the lifespan of the building)

> Too bad that we are currently doing the exact opposite (cutting down more forest than is regrown).

This is not true. Sustainable forestry practices have been increasing forest coverage for some time now.

Are there any good charities that buy up green land for the sake of not doing anything to it? From what I've read of carbon capture economics, it seems a frillion times more effective to simply not chop down more forest compared to investing in carbon capture (though I'm not saying we shouldn't do both)

  • Yes, the Nature Conservancy is a large nonprofit that buys lands to hold in its natural state, albeit not at the scale needed to offset industrial activities. They tend to focus more on qualities like undisturbed ecosystems, or biodiversity, than climate change.

    And in the U.S. at least, many states have a concept of a conservation easement where you get a tax advantage by promising not to disturb or develop land you own. This is used by some wealthy individuals to lock up a bunch of land undisturbed. But again, so far it is not remotely close to offsetting the overall human behaviors that are forcing warming. (As evidenced by the directly measured rising CO2 levels and temperature anomalies.)

  • Not exactly what you're asking for, but [Ecologi](https://ecologi.com/) is doing lots of work on the tree-planting front, but also doing other work that helps with climate change, like solar panel setups in Morocco, wind farms in the US, methane emissions in Brazil, and more.

  • Search for „rewilding“. It’s a popular approach in the UK but you’ll find projects in other countries, too.

I think they mean the global CO2 uptake from plants is 30% higher overall not that a single plant is able to uptake 30% more than the estimated before.

Even though more CO2 pressure in the atmosphere increases also the potential uptake in a plant.

>Too bad that we are currently doing the exact opposite (cutting down more forest than is regrown)...

Hmm, anyone has data on this? I've seen many people claiming the opposite of that opposite.

> Too bad that we are currently doing the exact opposite (cutting down more forest than is regrown)...

"Plants" is not a synonym for "trees". There are grasslands that are significant carbon sinks - even farmland managed in the right way can be a carbon sink . The oceans (which have a notable lack of trees) are a major carbon sink (although this paper is not talking about this, if I understand the abstract correctly).

There are plants in the ocean that man will have trouble to cut down.

Earth isn’t the same kind of living organism as man, but it’s an organism just like AI isn’t the same intelligence as that of man’s, but it is intelligence.