Comment by maxglute

Reminder that TSMC WANTs to stay in TW... they did not want to expand in US at all. Arizona fab annoucement after months rumormill was big surprise at the time since TSMC did massive TW capex expansion and had no $$$ for US fabs, and it was combination of CHIPS carrots ($$$) and US sticks that got Arizona greenlit. Morris Chang publically said CHIPS would fail to get US semi leadership, that US policy is "doomed" / "futile", that is not the words of someone who wanted to erode TW's silicon shield. IMO TSMC Arizona's current (likely ongoing) dependence on imported TW talent makes it pretty clear TW is keeping tight leash.

>Taiwan can't force TSMC

IIRC TW foreign minister said a few years ago it was pure American wishcasting to expect TSMC employees to be evacuated before TW women and children. Around the same time TW politicians rebuffed the idea that TW would destroy their own fabs. That's TW's leverage, they control who gets on and off the planes and boats. Reality is if PRC makes a move, they'll lock down the airfield and shores, that's PRC's leverage - to control if planes and boats get to leave in the first place. Ultimately, TW politicians knows locking semi talent on the island is leverage, especially if they lose, because most of them won't have a ticket off the island.

Not to mention paperclip is the victors getting the spoils, and US is far from assured any victory or there would be any TSMC employees left to paperclip if motivated PRC wants to deny. Or that TSMC is like 70k people excluding their families. 300k if you include other direct TW semi employment. More if you include indirect (supply chain), and ultimately there's considerable sole source semi suppliers on TW that TSMC US won't be functional just like how ASML can shut down hardware by stopping inputs for maintenance. It's not just packaging and domestic talent that's another bottleneck, TSMC Arizona stops with TW inputs as much as it doesn't without ASML ones. And so far there's no real public plan to reshore that supply chain in US.