Comment by kelthuzad
4 days ago
>Really? A nation destroyed for a protest letter from Ireland? A trade union wouldn't even settle for this.
It has symbolic meaning to which Israel responded with closing its embassy. You can downplay it however you want, but these are significant developments that will be discussed in lectures and history books.
>I'm weighing it the way we do history. Goals were set. None were achieved. To the extent we can measure them, the goals are further away than before.
Hamas had the goal of derailing normalization and they achieved that. An unexpected bonus was the reconquest of Syria which made the dictators of the Arab world also tremble in fear that their continued betrayal in form of normalization efforts with israel, contrary to the will of the people, could lead to their own demise as well.
>When push came to shove, nobody came for Palestine. Hezbollah and the Houthis came closest, but the former folded and the latter was maintained.
Another desperate attempt at downplaying the efforts of the resistance. Both Hezbollah and especially the Houthis did support Palestine, within their means, at significant cost to their own population. Since Israel's main solution to everything is just to ruthlessly bomb civilians and civilian infrastructure which even a congressman, Thomas Massie, has called out Israel for: https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1849165384571560052
An american congressman openly calling out Israel and receiving 111K likes - unimaginable before the Genocide, that's significant.
>Their closest regional ally, Iran, left them out to dry. Same for the Arab monarchies and America's adversaries, Russia and China. Sinwar was counting on a regional conflagration, and it never came. Before the war that wasn't apparent.
This is just the rhetoric of a person who thinks that geopolitics is checkers when it's actually chess. Iran obviously tried to avoid direct confrontation with Israel to prevent a war with the US so it primarily fights Israel via its proxies so the actions of the proxies are also the actions of Iran.
>Sinwar was counting on a regional conflagration, and it never came. Before the war that wasn't apparent.
What evidence do you have for that claim? I've seen video footage of Sinwar stating that they will derail normalization, which they achieved, and "exposing all the normalizers" which they also achieved. The world has seen Israel's true face, without a mask, and it's ugly.
>They trended on Twitter and college campuses, and I guess got a thumbs up from Ireland. But to the degree South Africa got the ICC in the ring, it largely served to (a) underline that both sides committed war crimes and (b) undermine the ICC's authority (note: not legitimacy) as a court versus think tank.
These attempts at downplaying the cultural impact of the past 15 months is just outright strange. The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu which many people thought would never happen. The reaction to this decision then exposed America and many of its european allies as frauds who claimed to care about "international law" but never actually did because they refused to comply so they can protect their war-criminal ally. this has proven that the whole "international law" charade was always just an imperial and colonial tool to impose western will on the global south. These events are crucial and will be discussed and lectured about in universities across the world.
>Sure. Based on current patterns, the trajectory is towards a cease fire and hardened occupation with some recognition for annexations.
Well the israeli historian and political scientist Ilan Pappe thinks that "This is the last phase of Zionism", he has his opinion and you have yours, we shall see.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/14/israeli-historian-i...
>That could change--things can always change. But in a world where the rules-based international order is crumbling, now is a bad time to have only norms to fall back on.
The "rules-based international order" died the moment the crusaders of "international law" have given impunity to their colonial outpost to commit genocide with impunity and then proven that they will ignore ICC rulings when the outcome is not in their favor. If I were Russia or China, I would be extremely happy about that because the next time America or Europe lectures them about morality or international law, they can just laugh it off.
I'll agree with you that the conflict, as well as the Ukraine war, has shown that the UN is largely irrelevant for conflicts of this proportion.
I don't think that's good news for Palestine however - it just means that, in certain contexts, the maxim of "might makes right" is much more openly acknowledged, which favours Israel because they're a nuclear power. You'd have to get Iran (or some even bigger power) involved for the balance to shift and the war clearly showed that this wasn't happening (fwiw, I think Russia and China don't care one bit about Palestine, they just like it if the conflict is ongoing and creates division in the West).
We don't know what history books are gonna write 100 or 200 years into the future and even if we did, it will be irrelevant. We don't today condone the way in which Caesar slaughtered the Gauls, but they still lost the war. In any case, I don't think the war, or history books, will care about Twitter likes in some far-off country.
> these are significant developments that will be discussed in lectures and history books
If one party wants control on the ground and the other will settle for footnotes in history books, maybe we have something Israel and Palestine agree on.
> Both Hezbollah and especially the Houthis did support Palestine, within their means, at significant cost to their own population
Both non-state actors. And Hezbollah backed down after being decimated. The Houthis are still going, but part of the ceasefire is giving oxygen to Israel to focus on long-range operations.
> it primarily fights Israel via its proxies so the actions of the proxies are also the actions of Iran
Yes. The proxies are neutered. Iran is strategically weaker than it’s been in decades. Hamas has gone from being a threat to a charity case, from fighting for things to trading lives for textbook references.
> they will derail normalization, which they achieved, and "exposing all the normalizers" which they also achieved
How? Part of the ceasefire is continued normalisation. If normalisation is rejected the ceasefire ceases and we go back to war.
> I were Russia or China, I would be extremely happy about that because the next time America or Europe lectures them about morality or international law, they can just laugh it off
Versus before? The last time the lectures worked was in the 90s. For anyone.
Tactically speaking, I’m halfway convinced the folks who came up with Defund The Police and think everyone supports Mangione have architected the pro-Palestinian movement in the West. It started as a solid expression of sympathy. But it’s developed into another project of name calling, genericising terms like genocide (if everyone is committing genocide, it’s not something you can punish), and labelling barely-symbolic wins as monumental historical reconfigurations. (An Al Jazeera op-ed predicts Israel’s downfall. Next thing you know, Mika Brzezinski will be predicting a Democrat resurgence and the Daily Caller a GOP single government.)
All this has done is polarise and strengthen opposition to the Palestinian cause by falsely making it seem the Palestinians are as nutty as the pro-Palestinian protesters. (Meanwhile, on the center left, it looks disturbingly like people who have no knowledge of the ground truth again trying to draw borders in the Middle East from abroad.)
Going into a discussion to lecture never works; if there is no curiosity or capacity to question, it’s not an exercise in activism. It’s a child running away to the end of the block, taking satisfaction in the imagined panic and regrets of their parents who likely never noticed their absence in the first place. The current state of rhetoric from both sides points to one outcome: an increasingly-irrelevant Gaza and lots of dead for people to write sympathetic history books about.
> Tactically speaking, I’m halfway convinced the folks who came up with Defund The Police and think everyone supports Mangione have architected the pro-Palestinian movement in the West. It started as a solid expression of sympathy.
The pro-Palestine movement has a much longer (and varied) history, but the main links between parts of the (especially radical) left and the movement were established in the cold war, see e.g. the German RAF going to PLO terrorist camps or the famous 1976 hijacking of a passenger plane by pro-Palestine activists: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entebbe_raid
That wasn't always the case, though, one of the first countries to recognise Israel was the USSR.
In any case it's weird whenever somebody pretends that what's going on now is in any sort of way a completely novel development, these fault lines have existed for decades.
>Both non-state actors. And Hezbollah backed down after being decimated. The Houthis are still going, but part of the ceasefire is giving oxygen to Israel to focus on long-range operations.
Hezbollah was not decimated, the IDF simply bypassed fighting hezbollah entirely by going straight for lebanon's civilian population in its typical zionist-terrorism approach [https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1849165384571560052] to inflict an unacceptable cost on civilians and put pressure on hezbollah to stop fighting. What are such tactics called again? ter·ror·ism /ˈterəˌrizəm/ noun the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahiya_doctrine - "The logic is to harm the civilian population so much that they will then turn against the militants, forcing the enemy to sue for peace"
>Yes. The proxies are neutered. Iran is strategically weaker than it’s been in decades. Hamas has gone from being a threat to a charity case, from fighting for things to trading lives for textbook references.
The proxies have not been neutered, that's just your zionist fantasy. they still possess large arms arsenals and are a real threat. If they had been neutered, Israel wouldn't have any reason to make compromises but they did in accepting the ceasefire. The only new problem for Hezbollah is the now defunct supply route from Iran through Syria, but they didn't even meaningfully deplete their current arsenal so they have enough time to find solutions for that. On the other hand, Hezbollah's new problem is also part of Israel's new problem, which is Syria, but that's a topic for another day.
>Versus before? The last time the lectures worked was in the 90s. For anyone.
People are quick to forget, Gaza is a fresh reminder for a new generation that "international law" is just a big charade.
>Tactically speaking, I’m halfway convinced the folks who came up with Defund The Police and think everyone supports Mangione have architected the pro-Palestinian movement in the West. It started as a solid expression of sympathy. But it’s developed into another project of name calling, genericising terms like genocide (if everyone is committing genocide, it’s not something you can punish),
Some incoherent rant that's essentially genocide denial in disguise, I shouldn't have even dignified this with a response.
>All this has done is polarise and strengthen opposition to the Palestinian cause by falsely making it seem the Palestinians are as nutty as the pro-Palestinian protesters. (Meanwhile, on the center left, it looks disturbingly like people who have no knowledge of the ground truth again trying to draw borders in the Middle East from abroad.)
None of that is true, that's just your distorted zionist perception of reality speaking. The pro-Palestinian protestors are sane and normal, it's genocidal Zionists like you who are the nutty one's trying to mislead people with weaselly rhetoric just to justify a genocide.
"UN Special Committee finds Israel’s warfare methods in Gaza consistent with genocide, including use of starvation as weapon of war 14 November 2024" [https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/11/un-special-c...]
>Going into a discussion to lecture never works; if there is no curiosity or capacity to question, it’s not an exercise in activism. It’s a child running away to the end of the block, taking satisfaction in the imagined panic and regrets of their parents who likely never noticed their absence in the first place. The current state of rhetoric from both sides points to one outcome: an increasingly-irrelevant Gaza and lots of dead for people to write sympathetic history books about.
Gaza's relevancy is at a historic high, otherwise we wouldn't be still talking about it. And your "if there is no curiosity or capacity to question" reminds me of Neo-Nazis who use such rhetoric to soften people up before they engage in blatant genocide denial, so it makes sense that zionists like you would use the exact same rhetoric to justify or deny an ongoing livestreamed genocide.
"Amnesty International investigation concludes Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza" [https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/12/amnesty-inter...]
Since both sides are using terrorism it’s fine, right?