Comment by Mathnerd314
2 days ago
To quote: "Ironically, Fisher was proven right, albeit in a very limited way: such genes [that increase both the tendency to smoke and the tendency for lung cancer] do exist."
The actual issue was not that (Cornfield wrote a paper in 1959 showing the effect was too small). It was that Fisher continued to repeat one finding in one study, despite that said finding had not been replicated in new studies (namely, lung cancer patients described themselves as inhalers less often than the controls), and continued to obstinately ignore all the other research coming out. But it was only 3 years between Cornfield and Fisher's death in 1962, so perhaps Fisher simply did not have time to change his mind.
> It was that Fisher continued to repeat one finding in one study, despite that said finding had not been replicated in new studies (namely, lung cancer patients described themselves as inhalers less often than the controls), and continued to obstinately ignore all the other research coming out.
Even if that finding were true, it could just mean that the cancer patients had stopped inhaling due to lung problems and underestimated how much they used to inhale.
If you asked me to estimate my caffeine, alcohol, fat, or sugar estimate from even 10 or 15 years ago, or how many steps per day I walked, I’m not confident I could give an accurate answer at all. If you asked me details about how I ate and drank — how fast I ate, how often I ate out, how quickly I replenished empty drinks, what percentage of the time I drank water with alcohol, or how often I cleaned my plate — I’m sure I’d be completely off the mark.