Comment by Xmd5a

>the concept of surprise is very cool

Then you may be interested in Simplicity Theory:

https://simplicitytheory.telecom-paris.fr/

    Relevant situations are unexpected
    Relevant features generate compression
    A situation or event is relevant if it is unexpected.
    This means that it is simpler to describe than to generate. 

In particular this recent paper:

>Unexpectedness and Bayes’ Rule

>A great number of methods and of accounts of rationality consider at their foundations some form of Bayesian inference. Yet, Bayes’ rule, because it relies upon probability theory, requires specific axioms to hold (e.g. a measurable space of events). This short document hypothesizes that Bayes’ rule can be seen as a specific instance of a more general inferential template, that can be expressed also in terms of algorithmic complexities, namely through the measure of unexpectedness proposed by Simplicity Theory.

Source: https://cifma.github.io/Papers-2021/CIFMA_2021_paper_13.pdf