Comment by lolinder
18 hours ago
> But unlike with offshoring (which is a people thing) or magical NOCODE/CASE/etc "solutions", it seems the consensus is that AI coding assistants will eventually get there.
There's no consensus to that point. There are a few loud hype artists, most of whom are employed in AI and have so have conflicts of interest and also are pre-filtered to the true believers. Their logic is basically "See this trend? Trends continue, so this is inevitable!"
That's bad logic. Trends do not always continue, they often slow or reverse, and this one is showing all signs of doing so already. OpenAI has come straight out and said that they don't expect to see another jump like GPT-3 to 4, and have resorted to throwing more tokens at the problems, which works with diminishing returns. I do not expect to see a return to the rapid growth we had for a year or two there.
> PS: I am offhsoring (in a way). I'm not based in the US but I work remotely for a US company.
Yes, and this is a good example: there's a place for offshoring, but it didn't replace US devs. The same thing will happen here.
Trends do not always continue, they often slow or reverse, and this one is showing all signs of doing so already. OpenAI has come straight out and said that they don't expect to see another jump like GPT-3 to 4, and have resorted to throwing more tokens at the problems, which works with diminishing returns. I do not expect to see a return to the rapid growth we had for a year or two there.
This feels like the declaration of someone who has spent almost no time playing with these models or keeping up with AI over the last two years. Go look at the benchmarks and leaderboards for the last 18 months and tell me we're not progressing far beyond GPT4. Meanwhile models are also getting faster, cheaper, getting multi-modal capabilities, cheaper to train for a given capability, etc.
And of course there are diminishing returns, the latest public models are in the 90s on many of their benchmarks!