Comment by eru

> That is, not just the companies, but also the market, the industry trends, etc.

That sounds like exceedingly bad advice.

Eg I work in software (like many people here). So my career itself already heavily exposes me to ups and downs of that industry; but it's also the industry I know best. The advice you quote would see me increase my already outsized exposure to that industry ever more.

Diversification is the only free lunch in finance. Your advice rejects it.

> The problem with most ETFs is that you'll still be investing in a bunch of dud companies, whose only reason for staying in the market is by virtue of being big (think HPs and IBMs, for example).

Feel free to use the gambling money part of your portfolio to short them.

And since HP and IBM etc are publicly traded, there are already lots of short sellers around making sure the prices stay reasonable.