Comment by williamcotton

On your epistemology, if you correctly guess the outcome of a random event then the statement, even if contingent on an event that did not yet occur, is still true. The same goes for every incorrect guess.

If you claim that you guess correctly 50% of the time then you are, from a Bayesian perspective, starting with a reasonable prior.

You then conflate the usefulness of some guessing skill with logic and statistics.

How this relates to an LLM is that the priors are baked into the LLM so statistics is all that is required to make an educated guess about the contents of a poorly written grocery list. The truthfulness of this guess is contingent on events outside of the scope of the LLM.

How often, applying a scalar value to the statistical outcome of an event, is very important. If your claim is that LLMs are wrong 5O% of the time then you need to update your priors based on some actual experience.