Comment by rich_sasha

Trump is pretty popular right now, but ultimately his actions have not yet had any impact on his voters. They like his image.

But the real world will keep on happening. There will be inflation, unemployment, cost of living etc. Ultimately, as the experience of various European Trumps shows, this is what prevails. It doesn't even have to be Trump's faults or successes that buoy or sink him. I'm sure part of the reason he lost his first reelection bid was that COVID happened (and in itself that wasn't his fault), likewise Biden lost because inflation (again, largely not his fault).

Meanwhile, he doesn't strike me as someone who generally handles crises well. Problems will come, ones that materially affect his political base, and he will have to handle them well, or be serially lucky, or lose his power base.

So in short, I wouldn't assume any particular group of people will like him long-term just because they like him a few weeks in. They might. They might not.

EDIT to be clear, I don't wish Trump dead. I think that would be destructive to the US democracy and thus also bad for the world.