Comment by drdeca
4 days ago
It’s not that I want to bet, but that I want a good probability estimate about whether commercially viable fusion power will be around by such and such date.
4 days ago
It’s not that I want to bet, but that I want a good probability estimate about whether commercially viable fusion power will be around by such and such date.
No, we'd simply get another financial product completely detached from any real economic value, of which we have plenty already.
What more insight could gamblers provide about nuclear fusion that expert physicists and engineers can't? Why and how would their predictions be more accurate than industry leaders?
Prediction markets are known to have an optimism bias when it comes to stuff like this.