Comment by nightpool
3 days ago
A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n...
However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)
That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections?
I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.
Delays getting to the airport and missing the plane. Cancelations with full refund. "Hidden city" ticketing. Layover delays. Businesses booking blocks. Flexible flights ( https://www.travelperk.com/guides/flexible-travel/flexible-f... ). Changing / rebooking flights for an earlier or later time.
A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights.
Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.
No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
14 replies →
Keep in mind they sell a lot of tickets where one of the features that allows for a premium price is that they allow late cancellations or changes to other flights. Holiday travelers are pretty "reliable", but business travelers might have changed needs at the drop of a hat (say you meet another prospective client on a business trip and decide to stay another day to fit in a face-to-face meeting).
European airports in 2019: A lot of these would be 10 euro Ryanair/Easyjet/Whatever flights, probably.
(The really ultra cheap Ryanair flights are less of a thing now, but in 2019 they were very much a factor)
Remember lots of business travelers have connections or flex schedules. When I had to go to the West coast for business, I usually have full fare tickets and book a later flight. If I had flexibility, I’d switch to an earlier plane or first class.
I'm sure other factors such as sudden illness and migrateable tickets make a sizeable chunk too.