Comment by spacechild1
1 year ago
> setting up the president as the sole power center is an inherently unstable system
Only if there is a transition of power. If power stays in the same hands, the system can be very stable - and not in a good way.
1 year ago
> setting up the president as the sole power center is an inherently unstable system
Only if there is a transition of power. If power stays in the same hands, the system can be very stable - and not in a good way.
> If power stays in the same hands, the system can be very stable - and not in a good way.
I don't think it actually can be that stable. I think I see what people are getting at when they say this, but it seems to me that authoritarian governments are generally quite unstable, because power never stays in the same hands. Power always changes hands, because we are mortal. Non-authoritarian systems are built to handle this, and ensure that it happens frequently enough that the wheels stay greased. Authoritarian systems are built around ensuring that the concentrated power stays only in the hands of certain people, and this is not possible.
To put it another way, non-authoritarian governments have less variance because they are taking some (very) rough average of all the people. Authoritarian governments are much more subject to the significant variance of individuals.
Of course we don't actually have that much historical data on non-authoritarian governments.
Look at Venezuela.
Chavez was kind of a thug, but he was also immensely popular with the commons. The people supported him, in a lot of his goals, and he was able to have a light touch, on a lot of the authoritarian stuff.
When he stepped aside, and Maduro took over, Chavez had established what was basically a dictatorship, and Maduro took the reins.
However, Maduro does not have the base support that Chavez had, and has had to use the stick a lot more. That sort of sets up a negative feedback loop, where more stick, means unhappier people, pushing back, which needs more stick.
Even if the current GOP really does have the best interests of the people in mind, if they dismantle the checks and balances, it's highly likely that a successor will use the power badly.
> Even if the current GOP really does have the best interests of the people in mind
Note that the Chavez/Maduro distinction you drew was not about “best interests of the people in mind” but the former being immensely popular and the latter not. The current Administration, whatever intent may exist in their minds, is very much not “immensely popular”.
> it's highly likely that a successor will use the power badly.
You will not need to wait long, but you do not really need to wait at all.
We also don’t have much data on how the calculus changes when AI transcript analysis makes the Stasi’s wet dreams a reality.
> it seems to me that authoritarian governments are generally quite unstable, because power never stays in the same hands.
Well, it depends, the Kims and the Chinese Communist Party have been in power for almost 80 years. We do have a lot of history of pre-democratic regimes tho, and many of those lasted longer than modern the democratic states.
Trump is pretty old at this point. Even if he decided to go full dictator, how long does he have? Maybe 5 to 10 years? I don't think it would be quite as "stable" as Putin's Russia.
The things Trump has put in place may long outlive him. Roe v Wade lasted a long time.
No doubt his administration will cast a long shadow. I was only responding to the allusion that he could become a long term dictator.
Most of HN is probably too young to remember him, but Trump seems closer to Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin from 30 years ago. They have flamboyant and unpredictable public personas in common. Yeltsin also loved public performances, media attention, and direct engagement with large crowds. He often made chaotic decisions based on gut feeling and instincts rather than any clear strategy. Over time, alcoholism made Yeltsin increasingly dysfunctional. His health deteriorated and he was frequently absent. His inner circle, which included powerful billionaires, selected a reliable young successor to maintain their grip and negotiated Yeltsin's resignation in exchange for legal immunity for himself and his family. That successor was Vladimir Putin, a relatively unknown and bureaucratic head of Russia's version of the CIA/FBI. Once in power, Putin systematically outmaneuvered those billionaires who had expected him to be loyal, and played them against each other to gain absolute personal control over the country.
Trump is a known quantity. His destructiveness is limited by his inability to maintain focus. I'd be much more worried about who follows him. Will they represent a return to decency, or will it be someone just as destructive but far more disciplined - like Putin?
TBH, I am one of those people that's a little too young to remember Yeltsin. I know him generally, but wasn't aware of the direct through line to Putin. Overall, that's a pretty sobering analysis.