Comment by pfdietz
3 days ago
> As for "why not 50 years", even the pessimistic reports of that video have it at ~30 years.
When a prediction is at a timescale where the person making the prediction will be retired by the time the prediction applies, you can safely ignore the prediction. That person has no reputational skin in the game.
If that's the singular prediction a report makes it can be safely regarded as suspicious regardless of the timeframe.