Comment by wolvesechoes
2 days ago
"I quite like the idea of a united EU army."
Won't happen, at least not in any meaningful form.
Baltics or Poland are existentially threatened by Russia, Spain or even Germany are not, even if Russia can do a limited damage to them. What is supposed to create "unity" in that regard? What would force Spain to contribute as much as, let's say, Finland? We can see even now, with all these US threats, not every NATO country was willing to increase its spending on military. And even more importantly, who is going to command such EU army? Commission?
Baltics and Poland are only threatened by Russian TV commentators and sometimes Dugin, who depending on the mood of the day says that Poland and the Baltics are not part of the Eurasian project, and on other days says that Estonia is in the German influence sphere (!) but Latvia and Lithuania are in the Russian sphere. These people foam at the mouth and have little influence.
I have never heard any serious Russia politician claim that the Baltics or Poland should be invaded.
Ukraine and Georgia are fundamentally different (for them), which is why they always have been red lines as pointed out in the Burns diplomatic telegram.
Invasion is not necessary. It is sad that any discussion limits politics and rivalry between countries to full-scale invasion.
Poland and Russia have opposing interests. Period. Russia wants to be a part of Europe, Poland doesn't want Russia to be a part of Europe. Poland wants to be sovereign country that keeps growing economically, Russia doesn't want that. Russia doesn't need to invade Poland, it is enough to "reshape the European Security Architecture", reduce Polish chances to develop and growth etc.
> Russia wants to be a part of Europe
Doubtful.
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well until 2022 no serious Russian politician (is there such a thing among the sock puppets ?) said Ukraine needed a invasion . Dictatorships.. if the boss pops a hemoroid in the morning , you march according to plan in the evening .
> any serious Russia politician claim that the Baltics or Poland should be invaded.
The last few years have seen the talking heads on right-wing news TV become actual politicians with real power.
Dunno if that same pathway to power exists in Russia but it sure does in the US.
> I have never heard any serious Russia politician claim that the Baltics or Poland should be invaded.
Putin did on one of St.Petersburg conferences, but you are right there are no serious politicians in Russia.
I think it has to be the french president, they’re the only EU country with nukes (I dont see UK as EU at this point)
Well, Macron is probably the only European leader that, declaratively at least, would like to push for more agency for Europe. Issue is that, for now, he offers only words. He already is trying to back down from the idea of sending troops to Ukraine (and number that was proposed was pathetic, considering intensity of this conflict).
Nukes are but a one thing, useful only in specific circumstances, but not sufficient. It is unrealistic to expect France using nukes if Russia attacks Lithuania, for example. Stakes are not justifying such escalation.
European countries lack conventional means: UAV, artillery, missiles. And soldiers.
At this moment, the Russian military is very weakened. Europe doesn't have overwhelming force but could easily kick Russia out of Ukraine. (Except it won't for political reasons.)
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Russian helicopters in the early days of the Ukraine war had “To Berlin” painted on them in Cyrillic.