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Comment by dredmorbius

4 months ago

That would be another factor.

PV tech to date has a presumed lifespan of about 20 years, at which point it's both typically degraded to 80% of nameplate functionality and cheaper to replace with newer, more functional, components.

That said, extending life by a factor of 50--100% could be a game-changer, particularly where PV is a major (or majority) factor of electricity generation or all energy inputs. At that point, needing to replace 5% of all installed capacity every year becomes its own daunting task. Reducing that to 2.5% would be a tremendous win if that could be achieved at a competitive cost.

I've done some reading on both how and why panels fail and durability/lifespan testing (much of this comes out of NREL in the US), and as it's due to multiple degradation pathways achieving greater lifespans isn't a trivial task, and the 20-year benchmark is itself quite dependent on specific experiences. E.g., a heavy hailstorm won't much care how old your panels are, but on average the expected incidence of such events is factored into the 20-year life expectancy (along with other similarly variable factors).