Comment by maxglute

My reading is the restructuring is based on locking in existing US security+partnership system / hegemonic arrangement, i.e. century bonds primarily targets countries who "should" be paying for protection, i.e. it's not just about trade, it's about security, and notion that partners would still be more prosperous paying under US security model.

TLDR is hegemony too expensive, US moving from client system where US pays priveledges of hegemony (trade deficits, overseas military, security commitments) to a tributary system where vassals pay. TBH the system has logic, but it's a matter of value... people don't like paying for what they got for free, and US industry has learned to be very good at extraction. In the short/medium term, EU/US security partners committed to US military hardware, maybe the gamble is in lieu of alternatives, people would lock in century bonds to renew protection when they have "no coverage", which would be fine if US industries and geopolitics have also not shown to be good at wiggling out of commitments. Regardless 50 year free trial is over, it's subscription model hegemony now.

Either way PRC not going to be in the group. That 800B is going to get slowly wind down over time, but it's like... 2 weeks of GDP it really doesn't matter especially if it goes woosh in TW scenario someday.