Comment by zeroq
2 days ago
In my bubble it's general consensus that Google - as we knew it - is done.
Sergiej and Larry phased out and what is left is more of less a headless chicken, too big too fall, but without any clear direction and goal.
2 days ago
In my bubble it's general consensus that Google - as we knew it - is done.
Sergiej and Larry phased out and what is left is more of less a headless chicken, too big too fall, but without any clear direction and goal.
Didn't Sergey become active again with the latest AI efforts?
Yes, and there was a leaked memo from him recommending that everyone at Deepmind work 60 hours a week and stop building "nanny products"[1].
[1]: https://www.theverge.com/command-line-newsletter/622045/goog...
Is this actually true about Larry and Sergei? A substantial amount of their net worths is still tied up in Google stock. I realize not all centibillionaires are cut from the same cloth, but still find it hard to believe they wouldn't be majorly involved since the downside of a major stock drop would impact them disproportionately. That said they could be the types of billionaires who actually think they have enough even if their net worths were "only" in the tens of billions (a long ways to go down from where they are today).
As for headless chicken, I feel similarly, but then I sort of see a path where they have defensible businesses in YouTube and maybe GCP, and then Waymo and robotics as green field upside, so that even if they don't end up with material market share with the "software-only" side of AI, and search gets further and further eroded, they could still be a formidable player.
Ultimately I do think their best days are behind them largely because they can't seem to turn the work of their talented engineers into great new products.
> they can't seem to turn the work of their talented engineers into great new products
I think about this a lot. The most famous example in tech world is obviously Jobs and Apple. And it's a great example because it's a borderline scientific experiment where you can directly compare three different phases.
But I think about it in a broader scope - like how many companies can last generations and remain relevant? There are plenty examples outside of tech, like banks but that's basically the same product and it's not that easy to launch a direct competetior to Bank of America or BMW, wheras software constantly evolves, people iterate on exisisting ideas I can I think of, from top of my hand, handful of examples of software that was really impactful but is not anymore.
Realistically person need just some XXXM to cover 99% of luxury lifestyle, and even stock drop 20x they will still have those money.
Also, Larry has some sickness, maybe his thoughts currently not about money at all.
At least you are aware that this is a bubble.
What is your bubble?