Comment by alephnerd
8 days ago
Matches the expectation analysts have had from December 2024 [0]
"In the baseline scenario, we assume that the US will raise its effective WATR against Chinese goods by a total of 20 percentage points over 2025-27. We expect the effective tariff rate on China to rise by 5-10 percentage points in 2025, owing to the imposition of tariffs related to fentanyl smuggling disputes. Mr Trump will further phase in tariffs from late 2025 with a wider range of excuses and policy tools, eventually bringing the effective WATR facing Chinese exports to about 30% by 2027."
[0] - https://www.eiu.com/n/the-impact-of-us-tariffs-on-china-thre...
For China maybe, I doubt any serious analysts were expecting this high of tariffs on most other countries, like Mexico, the UK, and Canada.
The methodology of counting non-price barriers on certain goods then applying it across the board on all goods as tariffs is bonkers. Doubtlessly they aren’t including all the non-price tariffs the US imposes on other countries either.
I’m extremely skeptical the EU has effective tariff rates of 40% on all US goods, and furthermore skeptical that if so the US doesn’t have countervailing effective tariff rates at the same rate.