The theory here is democrats on average are more educated, wealthier, and in more of a position to prove they are citizens. Don’t have an opinion on that. But it’s something I know many democrats around me have said.
Because of educational polarization and race depolarization, Democrats now overperform Republicans in low-turnout elections. It's been true in every cycle starting in 2018 (and in the special elections before that).
The demographics of the parties have shifted quite a bit with Trump's second term. The Republicans lost much of their educated elite but made up for it by gaining a lot of the poor folks that have hitherto been the Democratic backbone and who are most hurt by voter ID.
Trump lost the $30k–$50k democraphic by 9 points in 2016, but turned around and won it by 6 points in 2024—a 15-point swing! Meanwhile he won the $100k–$200k and $200k+ demographics by ~2 percentage points in 2016, but lost it by 5+ points in 2024 even while winning the popular vote.
It's possible that this was a one-off and not a major permanent realignment, but it's definitely not as clear cut as it used to be.
How do you figure?
The theory here is democrats on average are more educated, wealthier, and in more of a position to prove they are citizens. Don’t have an opinion on that. But it’s something I know many democrats around me have said.
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Because of educational polarization and race depolarization, Democrats now overperform Republicans in low-turnout elections. It's been true in every cycle starting in 2018 (and in the special elections before that).
The demographics of the parties have shifted quite a bit with Trump's second term. The Republicans lost much of their educated elite but made up for it by gaining a lot of the poor folks that have hitherto been the Democratic backbone and who are most hurt by voter ID.
Trump lost the $30k–$50k democraphic by 9 points in 2016, but turned around and won it by 6 points in 2024—a 15-point swing! Meanwhile he won the $100k–$200k and $200k+ demographics by ~2 percentage points in 2016, but lost it by 5+ points in 2024 even while winning the popular vote.
It's possible that this was a one-off and not a major permanent realignment, but it's definitely not as clear cut as it used to be.