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Comment by Taniwha

8 days ago

So what's going to happen is:

- each country will impose equivalent taxes on the import of US goods - this is not only expected, but the norm under international trade law. - with the rest of the world, still having free trade agreements between them, will start trading around the US, the US won't be able to compete

The value of the US$ will likely drop by the value of the tariffs. If everyone starts trading around the US we'll probably lose the US$ as a standard currency to trade in, maybe switching to yuan or euros, the US$ is buoyed by it being the currency everyone uses, that's going to drive it even lower.

>each country will impose equivalent taxes on the import of US goods

Many of these countries already have tariffs on U.S. goods. The EU has a 25% tariff on US agricultural, chemical, and some manufactured products.

That's precisely the point right? Devalue the dollar when so you can pay off your debt with a higher value asset.

If the US$ drop 30%, the deficit magically dropped 30% when calculated in something else....

  • Which is like burning all the houses (including your own) so you can use your houses to buy other people's houses cheap.

    This only works if you have superior manufacturing infra. To some extent the FAANGs export tech. But if FAANG is a tiny thing compared to say Toyota.

  • But the US$ is kept artificially high because it's used as a reserve currency for things like oil/etc - this is IMHO the main reason why the US is in this position, it wont let its currency float down leaving exporters screwed (but cheap imports for the masses). Just increasing the cost of imports but not making export prices higher (lower in fact because other countries will be raising tariffs against the US)

    It's very much a case of "you can't have your cake and eat it too" fix an artificially high US$ and you can force everyone to trade in it for oil, but as a side effect you screw your exporters