Comment by 55555
7 days ago
Factories are not coming back to the USA in large number, for a lot of reasons, at least not until full automation + tariffs makes them economical. But the biggest reason is that what's going to happen is that the average joe is going to suffer a bit, then will vote against these policies in the next election, and that's only 3.5 years away. If it takes a year to build a factory -- and frankly these tariffs could be adjusted again or removed in a few months -- and then they're likely to be fully removed in 3.5 years, I'm just not sure it makes sense to invest in a factory.
Optimistic to assume that the US will have voting in 3.5 years.
My suspicion is that Trump will declare a national emergency and suspend elections at the mid-term if it looks like the Republicans will lose seats in the House.
I doubt enough people would stand for that. He might try, similar to how South Korea tried a similar trick last year - it didn't stick.
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Want to bet that Trump's argument for a third term hinges on the US being in a recession/depression and needing him to see the economy through the struggles?