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Comment by riffraff

7 days ago

> it feels like a good opportunity for China to increase their trade/influence in the region as well

influence for sure. But trade? Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia already have ~40% of their imports from China and 5% or so from the US, I don't think this tariff can realistically increase trade between China and SEA countries much.

11 comments

riffraff

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cjrp  7 days ago

What about the inverse though; Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia increasing their exports to China?

  • thebigjewbowski  7 days ago

    China has been trying to build up domestic markets for the past several years. With the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods it stands to reason that they’re not in a position to import from Vietnam, etc. because there will be domestic overproduction.

    • giantg2  7 days ago

      "because there will be domestic overproduction."

      Is that from a decrease in demand, or an increase in supply from other countries? I'm curious what the price elasticity of demand looks like for Chinese imports.

      3 replies →

  • riffraff  7 days ago

    Could be, but China's imports from the US where not much (6% of their total) and cannot be easily substituted from SEA countries, as they were mostly importing a ton of agricultural stuff (soybeans, corn) plus fossils.

    I understand 6% of china may be a much higher percentage of, say, Vietnam's export, but I just don't think Vietnam can produce that much more of that, quickly.

    https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/explore/treemap?exporter=count...

accurrent  7 days ago

Would it reduce the share of exports that US sells? If they decide to buy directly from China over the US given the higher price of everything in the US (keep in mind the raw components dont all appear out of nowhere).

throwaway2037  7 days ago

I checked these numbers for Thailand: China: 24%, US: 6.73%

For Vietnam: China: 32.79%, US: 4.04%