Comment by jorge-d
7 days ago
It's even worse, they literally got their formula from a llm model (probably Grok?) => https://bsky.app/profile/dansinker.com/post/3llunnyfeoj2v
"To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4.
Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al., 2023), but estimates of the elasticity vary. To be conservative, studies that find higher elasticities near 3-4 were drawn on. The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25."[0]
[0] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
Do I understand this right: The evidence that they took it from a LLM is that all LLMs give the same answer and this answer describes what they did?
By that logic, it looks like Pythagoras got his theorem from an LLM...
It explains why they singled out Reunion from France, it has a separate ccTLD. That type of mistake is the kind a LLM would do, not a human...
I'm convinced. this is fucking crazy.
>It explains why they singled out Reunion from France, it has a separate ccTLD
It also has a separate country abbreviation (RE). You know, like you'd see on an address. The thing that tells you where something, like a good imported in to the United States, is coming from.
This is is why it has a separate ccTLD by the way.
This blue sky thread is just an incredible example of motivated reasoning.
2 replies →
If ChatGPT was available back then, sure.
Its worse than that. Its like saying you must have used chat gpt because you answered that 2+2= 4 and gasp so do the LLMs! Nevermind that its just the obvious answer to the question.
Lets see the prompt. The prompt further down in the thread that reproduces it was asking how to use tariffs to balance trade deficits with a 10% minimum. Is there any other answer then set the rate such that the deficit goes away or 10%, whichever is greater? No. That's just the answer to the question and is why ALL LLMs give the same answer.
LLMs are basically just good at sourcing ideas from the internet. Me thinks this just means that this tariff idea exists on the internet, especially since grok, chatgpt, etc all come up with the same idea. We used to not have income taxes and funded the govt with tariffs so this probably isn't a new concept despite media outlets pretending like it is.
It's good at compressing information from the internet, usually not losslessly.
Are you implying there is a very small chance that if someone posted in 2018 reddit "We should tariff Algeria at 35% because X", the LLM that the administration may have used would have agreed with random redditor?
> Me thinks this just means that this tariff idea exists on the internet
Probably from some random genius on reddit.
It is really silly to say that because an LLM gave a similar approach a single time and someone took a screencap of it without full context, that Elon and Trump are sitting in the whitehouse asking Grok what to. This level of hyperbole is why reading about anything to do with the two of them is really exhausting.
People are saying they literally used the trade deficit and the formula they published that they claim doesn’t do this multiplies that value by 4 and then 0.25. Yeah… that is what we are dealing with.
> Elon and Trump are sitting in the whitehouse asking Grok what to
Not perhaps Elon or Trump themselves (doubt Trump can actually use a computer), but it could very well be one of the teens like the so-called "Big Balls" that apparently have their hands in everything.
> This level of hyperbole is why reading about anything to do with the two of them is really exhausting
Almost as exhausting as their daily actions / tweets / rants.
>It is really silly to say that because an LLM gave a similar approach a single time and someone took a screencap of it without full context, that Elon and Trump are sitting in the whitehouse asking Grok what to.
A similar approach to a close-ended question.
The original screenshot doesnt show the prompt. The one reproducing it asks for a tariff policy to eliminate trade deficits with a 10% minimum. Umm... hello? There is only one answer to that. The greater value between 10% and a rate based on the deficit. Of course the Trump policy and all 4 LLM answers agree. The answer is determined by the question.
Its like accusing little Timmy of cheating on his math homework because he said 2+2=4 and -- GASP -- so do all the LLMs!
Wow. So they came up with zero-effort estimates of the tariff rate which would balance the trade deficit. The method is like something you'd be asked to criticise in A level economics.
Then they incorrectly labelled these numbers as reciprocal tarrifs implying this is what other countries charge the US.
The worst of it is that all of this misinformation will be happily accepted as truth by so many people. It's now going to be almost impossible to have people realise the truth, especially those people who support Trump. Ugh.
> It's now going to be almost impossible to have people realise the truth, especially those people who support Trump
NOW? It's been this way for close to 10 years.