Comment by nzealand

> the United States needs to manage its massive national debt,

> The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.

> What are the flaws in this thinking?

Flaw #1:

Massive treasury rollovers isn't new.

22% of all Treasuries have a duration of 1 year or less.

The only new thing is that rates have gone up.

Uncertainty is a short term solution to a long term problem.

Flaw #2:

Economic uncertainty and supply side shocks risks a recession.

Recessions usually increase national debt.

Flaw #3:

The right answer to reducing national debt is to ensure incomes exceed outgoings.

The current administration is so focused on extending trillion dollar tax cuts, no amount of tariffs or government efficiency is going to lower the national debt.

Flaw #4:

Treasuries only really go down during a recession.

Recessions are bad, not good.

If you think finding a tech job is hard now, or that your RSUs are hurting, wait until you see a serious recession.