Comment by heywoods

7 days ago

Edit: poor formatting on mobile.

The “Liberation Day” tariffs aren’t random—they’re step one in a broader strategy called the Mar-a-Lago Accord (yes, named after Trump’s resort). Here’s the playbook from Stephen Miran’s framework and what’s likely next:

The Mar-a-Lago Accord Framework

1. Tariffs as Leverage

   • Impose tariffs to force trading partners to revalue their currencies downward (making U.S. exports cheaper globally).

• Example: The “reciprocal” tariffs target countries with trade surpluses (China, EU) to pressure concessions.

2. Currency Realignment

   • Weaken the dollar to boost U.S. manufacturing (counteracting its “overvaluation”).

 • Miran argues a weaker dollar would make imports pricier and exports more competitive.

 3. Debt Restructuring
 
  • Swap existing U.S. Treasury debt into 100-year “century bonds” to reduce interest payments.

   • Foreign holders (like China/Japan) would “voluntarily” accept this to maintain U.S. security ties.

4. Sovereign Wealth Fund

  • Use tariff revenue to create a fund buying foreign currencies, artificially depressing the dollar.

   • (Not implemented yet—still theoretical.)

Where “Liberation Day” Fits?

—> You are here | Step 1 <—

The 10% baseline tariff + “reciprocal” rates (up to 50%) kickstart Miran’s plan by:

  - • Generating revenue ($300B+/year) to fund future steps.

  - • Forcing allies/adversaries to negotiate (or face higher costs).

  - • Goal: Create chaos to pressure partners into accepting dollar devaluation and debt swaps.

What’s Next (If the Playbook Holds)?

1. The ̶C̶l̶o̶n̶e̶ Currency Wars

Expect Trump to accuse China/EU of “currency manipulation” to justify further dollar interventions.

2. Debt Shakeup

Pressure foreign Treasury holders (like Japan) to swap debt for century bonds. If they refuse? More tariffs.

3. Sector-Specific Tariffs

Pharma, lumber, and tech tariffs are likely next to “protect” U.S. industries.

4. Retaliation Escalation

Allies like Canada/EU will counter with tariffs, risking global recession.

The Perils Lying Ahead (Miran’s paper admits risks)

Miran’s paper admits risks:

   • Tariffs might strengthen the dollar short-term (investors flock to USD safety), undermining manufacturing goals.

 • Debt restructuring could trigger a Treasury sell-off, spiking interest rates.

Bottom line: “Liberation Day” is phase one of a high-risk plan. Success depends on whether trading partners blink first.

"The Road goes ever on and on, Down from the door where it began. Now far ahead the Road has gone, And I must follow, if I can." - Tolkien