Comment by nyarlathotep_
7 days ago
> Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee?
Agree with this.
Also, what if there's just not a need for it?
Even if "everyone" in some abstract sense is capable of "high-skill" jobs, how many are really needed? Look at software jobs alone and the onslaught that is the current labor market.
I think there's nowhere near enough "work" ("real" or otherwise) to go around to maintain the level of employment necessary to support the population that we have at the costs that we have.
I don't think any sort of "UBI" (assuming you mean direct cash payments) is a realistic solution, either. People need to "work" in some organized fashion to avoid the common negative outcomes associated with "welfare" scenarios.
I legitimately, unironically, support the kinds of "fake" jobs that were prevalent in years' past (day in the life TikToks come to mind, Gov jobs where people send three emails a week, etc).
I guess in another sense I do support "UBI", as long as it's paired with the illusion of "work."
I understand this seems nonsensical, but just from practical experience it makes total sense to me.
Here's an example.
Years back I worked a software gig at a large non-"tech" F500 company. Much of the programming work there was extremely dull--occasional maintenance of large barely functional enterprise Java messes, writing a few SQL queries a week for wretched multi-table joins requiring all sorts of nasty casting and hacks as "normalization" was an alien concept to the original author and the like. Realistically, folks worked on this stuff perhaps 10 hours a week?
Anyway, I know a few people hit with a layoff that worked there a long time (decade+) and now they're back in the Thunderdome looking for work as "developers". The people in question are nearing retirement but presumably not there, for one reason or another.
Hows this going to work for them? I'm not denigrating them, but having worked with these folks, they're not going to be tearing into broken pipelines, adding React components, configuring Docker builds or whatever--there's a skill mismatch and the workload I've seen at roles lately is just so far beyond the pace, scope, and "scale" that there's no way they'd make it, if they can even get an interview at all.
In this example, would it be best to give them "UBI" payments, or some other slow near-sinecure where they have dignity?
Maybe I'm just soft.
> I don't think any sort of "UBI" (assuming you mean direct cash payments) is a realistic solution, either. People need to "work" in some organized fashion to avoid the common negative outcomes associated with "welfare" scenarios.
That's actually the point of a UBI.
The problem with existing welfare programs is that they're a poverty trap. If you have no job or a very low paying job, you get benefits. If you make any more money at all, you lose the benefits, and simultaneously you lose the time and expenses of taking the job. If that means you e.g. have to buy a car to go to work, taking a job causes you to lose money. Sometimes you lose money even before your working expenses because overlapping benefits phase outs can consume more than 100% of marginal income.
With a UBI, the amount you get is only the amount you need to avoid starvation and homelessness, but you get that amount unconditionally. If you can find any work at all, you get the UBI and your wages, instead of getting your wages instead of welfare programs. Which allows you to work, even if you're only qualified to do low paying jobs, without being put in a worse position than you'd have been if you just stayed on welfare.
I'm of a similar mindset, just look how many software adjacent roles are basically UBI already.
With DOGE the US seems to moving backwards, cutting down on gov busywork for what self-defeating purpose? They just end up flooding the market, or worse, sabotaging productive teams with their meetings and ceremonies.
> I'm of a similar mindset, just look how many software adjacent roles are basically UBI already.
Many actual software jobs are, too.
How many people are working/have worked (especially during the covid-boom years) on projects with no path to profitability, minimal practical utility etc.
How many "promo" projects were launched during those years?
My perspective is there's a lot of (unintentional, perhaps) "patronage" that's gone on for some time now, and what we're seeing throughout the industry is a reaction to that.
Pretty ironic, considering that Elon Musk supports UBI.