Comment by abecedarius

Good question. I tried to phrase a concrete-enough prediction 3.5 years ago, for 5 years out at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29020401

It was surpassed around the beginning of this year, so you'll need to come up with a new one for 2027. Note that the other opinions in that older HN thread almost all expected less.