Comment by NitpickLawyer
9 days ago
> Oh boy, this absolutely does not work for chess at high levels.
Magnus himself said this. If he were to cheat, he'd only get 1-2 moves per game, and sometimes not even the moves explicitly, but merely the notion that "there is a very good / critical move in this position". That would be statistically impossible to accurately detect.
Well, statistics would be the only mechanism. If a player was on average playing at level X in one setting, but at a lower level Y in a setting where it was considered impossible to cheat, that's about as good as you can do.
But it's pretty impossible to point to a single move and say "that's definitely a cheat move".
You can look at moves as a series of probabilities. For each move, classify if it's more a blunder or inspired move and then look at people's games and see if they consistently have 1-2 moves that are much much better than their typical.
The problem is that at that level they're more likely to make the absolute perfect move than not. Super GMs often play 95-98%+ accuracy games.
But what if they only cheat occasionally? A top player would only need a handful of moves to go from say 3rd in a tournament to winning.