Comment by visarga

I have considered this too. I frame it as problem solving. We are solving problems across all fields, from investing, to designing, construction, sales, entertainment, science, medicine, repair. What do you need when you are solving problems? You need to know the best action you can take in a situation. How is AI going to know all that? Some things are only tacicly known by key people, some things are guarded secrets (how do you make cutting edge chips, or innovative drugs?), some rely on experience that is not written down. Many of those problems have not even been fully explored, they are open field of trial and error.

AI progress depends not just on ideation speed, but on validation speed. And validation in some fields needs to pass through the physical world, which makes it expensive, slow, and rate limited. Hence I don't think AI can reach singularity. That would only be possible if validation was as easy to scale as ideation.