Comment by roryokane

> [The Manifold prediction market] only requires 30% of judges to vote YES for it to resolve to YES.

That’s a misreading. If 30% of judges vote YES, then only 30% of the prediction’s market cap is awarded to those who bet YES, while the remaining 70% of the market cap is awarded to those who bet NO. The market correctly rewards those who bet NO in such a case. Therefore, bettors have no reason to bet YES if they really think NO.