Comment by the8472

A stochastic parrot with a sufficiently tiny residual error rate needs a stochastic model so precisely compressing the world and sophisticated decompression algorithms that it could be called reasoning.

Take two 4K frames of a falling vase, ask a model to predict the next token... I mean the following images. Your model now needs include some approximations of physics - and the ability to apply it correctly - to produce a realistic outcome. I'm not aware of any model capable of doing that, but that's what it would mean to predict the unseen with high enough fidelity.