Comment by jcranmer

Tariffs done well could be a boon for a sector. But they are tricky to do well, and the current administration doesn't show the slightest hint of being capable of doing it well.

You have to treat tariffs not as a moat to protect an industry for good, but a runway to give a nascent industry enough room to take off. In a mature industry, tariffs are more likely to keep incumbents uncompetitive and disincentivize investments that would make them more competitive, especially if those are capital-heavy.

Also, tariffs aren't going to be effective if other structural issues exist in an industry that prevent or sharply limit expansion. Like key components having a sole worldwide supplier with a full order book. Or if capital investment to set up a new factory are beyond the ability of the financial markets to provide.