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Comment by leesec

4 days ago

"haven't actually done much" being popularizing the chat llm and absolutely dwarfing the competition in paid usage

Relative to the hype they've been spinning to attract investment, casting the launch and commercialization of ChatGPT as their greatest achievement really is a quite significant downgrade, especially given that they really only got there first because they were the first entity reckless enough to deploy such a tool to the public.

It's easy to forget what smart, connected people were saying about how AI would evolve by <current date> ~a year ago, when in fact what we've gotten since then is a whole bunch of diminishing returns and increasingly sketchy benchmark shenanigans. I have no idea when a real AGI breakthrough will happen, but if you're a person who wants it to happen (I am not), you have to admit to yourself that the last year or so has been disappointing---even if you won't admit it to anybody else.

ChatGPT was released two and a half years ago though. Pretty sure that at some point Sam Altman had promised us AGI by now.

The person you're responding to is correct that OpenAI feels a lot more stagnant than other players (like Google, which was nowhere to be seen even one year and a half ago and now has the leading model on pretty much every metric, but also DeepSeek, who built a competitive model in a year that runs for much cheaper).

  • Google has the leading model on pretty much every metric

    Correction: Google had the leading model for three weeks. Today it’s back to the second place.

    • press X to doubt

      o3-mini wasn't even the second place for non-STEM tasks, and in today's announcement they don't even publish benchmarks for those. What's impressive about Gemini 2.5 pro (and was also really impressive with R1) is how good the model is for a very broad range of tasks, not just benchmaxing on AIME.

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ChatGPT was released in 2022, so OP's point stands perfectly well.

  • They're rumored to be working on a social network to rival X with the focus being on image generations.

    https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/15/openai-is-reportedly-devel...

    The play now seems to be less AGI, more "too big to fail" / use all the capital to morph into a FAANG bigtech.

    My bet is that they'll develop a suite of office tools that leverage their model, chat/communication tools, a browser, and perhaps a device.

    They're going to try to turn into Google (with maybe a bit of Apple and Meta) before Google turns into them.

    Near-term, I don't see late stage investors as recouping their investment. But in time, this may work out well for them. There's a tremendous amount of inefficiency and lack of competition amongst the big tech players. They've been so large that nobody else could effectively challenge them. Now there's a "startup" with enough capital to start eating into big tech's more profitable business lines.

    • I don't know how anyone could look at any of this and say ponderously: it's basically the same as Nov 2022 ChatGPT. Thus strategically they're pivoting to social to become too big to fail.

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    • I appreciate the info and I have a question:

      Why would anyone use a social network run by Sam Altman? No offense but his reputation is chaotic neutral to say the least.

      Social networks require a ton of momentum to get going.

      BlueSky already ate all the momentum that X lost.

      2 replies →

    • chatGPT should be built into my iMessage threads with friends. @chatGPT "Is there an evening train on Thursdays from Brussels to Berlin?" Something a friend and I were discussing but we had to exit out of iMessage and use GPT then back to iMessage.

      For UX The GPT info in the thread would be collapsed by default and both users have the discretion to click to expand the info.

seriously. the level of arrogance combined with ignorance is awe inspiring.

  • True. They've blown their absolutely massive lead with power users to Anthropic and Google. So they definitely haven't done nothing.