I am tech founder, who spends most of my day in my own startup deploying LLM-based tools into my own operations, and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.
> and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.
How do you know they are possible to do today? Errors gets much worse at scale, especially when systems starts to depend on each other, so it is hard to say what can be automated and not.
Like if you have a process A->B, automating A might be fine as long as a human does B and vice versa, but automating both could not be.
Not even close. Software can now understand human language... this is going to mean computers can be a lot more places than they ever could. Furthermore, software can now understand the content of images... eventually this will have a wild impact on nearly everything.
It doesn't understand anything, there is no understanding going on in these models. It takes input and generates output based on the statistical math created from its training set. It's Bayesian statistics and vector/matrix math. There is no cogitation or actual understanding.
Understand? It fails with to understand a rephrasing of a math problem a five year old can solve...
They get much better at training to the test from memory the bigger they get. Likewise you can get some emergent properties out of them.
Really it does not understand a thing, sadly. It can barely analyze language and spew out a matching response chain.
To actually understand something, it must be capable of breaking it down into constituent parts, synthesizing a solution and then phrasing the solution correctly while explaining the steps it took.
And that's not even what huge 62B LLM with the notepad chain of thought (like o3, GPT-4.1 or Claude 3.7) can really properly do.
Further, it has to be able to operate on sub-token level. Say, what happens if I run together truncated version of words or sentences?
Even a chimpanzee can handle that. (in sign language)
It cannot do true multimodal IO either. You cannot ask it to respond with at least two matching syllables per word and two pictures of syllables per word, in addition to letters. This is a task a 4 year old can do.
Prediction alone is not indicative of understanding. Pasting together answers like lego is also not indicative of understanding.
(Afterwards ask it how it felt about the task. And to spot and explain some patterns in a picture of clouds.)
To push this metaphor, I'm very curious to see what happens as new organic training material becomes increasingly rare, and AI is fed nothing but its own excrement. What happens as hallucinations become actual training data? Will Google start citing sources for their AI overviews that were in turn AI-generated? Is this already happening?
I figure this problem is why the billionaires are chasing social media dominance, but even on social media I don't know how they'll differentiate organic content from AI content.
I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN/SV info-bubble folks.
That doesn’t match what I hear from teachers, academics, or the librarians complaining that they are regularly getting requests for things which don’t exist. Everyone I know who’s been hiring has mentioned spammy applications with telltale LLM droppings, too.
Agreed. A hot take I have is that I think AI is over-hyped in its long-term capabilities, but under-hyped in its short-term ones. We're at the point today or in the next twelve months where all the frontier labs could stop investing any money into research, they'd still see revenue growth via usage of what they've built, and humanity will still be significantly more productive every year, year-over-year, for quite a bit, because of it.
The real driver of productivity growth from AI systems over the next few years isn't going to be model advancements; it'll be the more traditional software engineering, electrical engineering, robotics, etc systems that get built around the models. Phrased another way: If you're an AI researcher thinking you're safe but the software engineers are going to lose their jobs, I'd bet every dollar on reality being the reverse of that.
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
I am tech founder, who spends most of my day in my own startup deploying LLM-based tools into my own operations, and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.
What has your roadmap to do with the capabilities?
LLMs still hallucinate and make simple mistakes.
And the progress seams to be in the benchmarks only
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43603453
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> and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.
How do you know they are possible to do today? Errors gets much worse at scale, especially when systems starts to depend on each other, so it is hard to say what can be automated and not.
Like if you have a process A->B, automating A might be fine as long as a human does B and vice versa, but automating both could not be.
100% this. The rearrangement of internal operations has only started and there is just sooo much to do.
What sort of things have you found the tech most useful for?
Not even close. Software can now understand human language... this is going to mean computers can be a lot more places than they ever could. Furthermore, software can now understand the content of images... eventually this will have a wild impact on nearly everything.
It doesn't understand anything, there is no understanding going on in these models. It takes input and generates output based on the statistical math created from its training set. It's Bayesian statistics and vector/matrix math. There is no cogitation or actual understanding.
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Understand? It fails with to understand a rephrasing of a math problem a five year old can solve... They get much better at training to the test from memory the bigger they get. Likewise you can get some emergent properties out of them.
Really it does not understand a thing, sadly. It can barely analyze language and spew out a matching response chain.
To actually understand something, it must be capable of breaking it down into constituent parts, synthesizing a solution and then phrasing the solution correctly while explaining the steps it took.
And that's not even what huge 62B LLM with the notepad chain of thought (like o3, GPT-4.1 or Claude 3.7) can really properly do.
Further, it has to be able to operate on sub-token level. Say, what happens if I run together truncated version of words or sentences? Even a chimpanzee can handle that. (in sign language)
It cannot do true multimodal IO either. You cannot ask it to respond with at least two matching syllables per word and two pictures of syllables per word, in addition to letters. This is a task a 4 year old can do.
Prediction alone is not indicative of understanding. Pasting together answers like lego is also not indicative of understanding. (Afterwards ask it how it felt about the task. And to spot and explain some patterns in a picture of clouds.)
To push this metaphor, I'm very curious to see what happens as new organic training material becomes increasingly rare, and AI is fed nothing but its own excrement. What happens as hallucinations become actual training data? Will Google start citing sources for their AI overviews that were in turn AI-generated? Is this already happening?
I figure this problem is why the billionaires are chasing social media dominance, but even on social media I don't know how they'll differentiate organic content from AI content.
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates
idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles
still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it
I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN/SV info-bubble folks.
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That doesn’t match what I hear from teachers, academics, or the librarians complaining that they are regularly getting requests for things which don’t exist. Everyone I know who’s been hiring has mentioned spammy applications with telltale LLM droppings, too.
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> idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles
> still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it
Rather: outside of the HN and SV bubbles, the A"I"s and the fact how one can fall for this kind of hype and dupery is commonly ridiculed.
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ChatGPT has 400M weekly users. https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
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Agreed. A hot take I have is that I think AI is over-hyped in its long-term capabilities, but under-hyped in its short-term ones. We're at the point today or in the next twelve months where all the frontier labs could stop investing any money into research, they'd still see revenue growth via usage of what they've built, and humanity will still be significantly more productive every year, year-over-year, for quite a bit, because of it.
The real driver of productivity growth from AI systems over the next few years isn't going to be model advancements; it'll be the more traditional software engineering, electrical engineering, robotics, etc systems that get built around the models. Phrased another way: If you're an AI researcher thinking you're safe but the software engineers are going to lose their jobs, I'd bet every dollar on reality being the reverse of that.
totally agree