Comment by Spivak
4 days ago
Eh, it's a reasonable prior. The timeline is "it will never happen" until the leap forward happens that makes it "within 2 years." Basically the same as air flight.
You can't know when the leap will happen so it's basically picking a year that seems far enough off to be pretty darn sure.
It doesn't require a leap forward, we could put boots on the ground with 1990s tech.
aye we could have. and they'd all be long dead on the surface of Mars by this point. getting them there isn't enough.
Keeping them alive and returning them doesn't require "a leap" which is the central point of OP I am disagreeing with. We have all the technology, material science etc to do it.
Sure, it requires some research, engineering and a crapload of investment, but it doesn't require anything that is currently "science fiction".